GOP Poll Update – Iowa and Beyond

The final Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll shows Governor Mike Huckabee in the lead by six points in Iowa:

In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.

HT: Harris Brothers

Republican Leader Poll Map as of 1/3/08 (courtesy of Politics and Christianity.com)

Most recent polls:

• National – John McCain (Pew Research)
• Iowa – Mike Huckabee (Des Moines Register) – 1/3/08
• New Hampshire – John McCain (Suffolk Tracking) – 1/9/08
• Michigan – Mitt Romney (Detroit News) – 1/15/08
• Nevada – Mitt Romney (American Research Group) – 1/19/08
• South Carolina – Mike Huckabee (Survey USA) – 1/19/08
• Florida – Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac) – 1/29/08
• Alabama – Fred Thompson (Capital Survey Research Center) – 2/5/08
• Arizona – John McCain (Rasmussen) – 2/5/08
• Arkansas – Mike Huckabee (Global Strategy Group) – 2/5/08
• California – Rudy Giuliani (Field) – 2/5/08
• Colorado – John McCain (Rasmussen) – 2/5/08
• Georgia – Mike Huckabee (Strategic Vision) – 2/5/08
• Illinois – Rudy Giuliani (Chicago Tribune/WGN TV) – 2/5/08
• Missouri – Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen) – 2/5/08
• Montana – Mike Huckabee (Gazette State Poll) – 2/5/08
• New Jersey – Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac) – 2/5/08
• New York – Giuliani (Siena) – 2/5/08
• Ohio – Mike Huckabee (Rasmussen) – 2/5/08
• Oklahoma – Mike Huckabee (Tulsa World) – 2/5/08
• Kansas – John McCain (Rasmussen) – 2/9/08
• Washington – Rudy Giuliani (Washington Poll) – 2/19/08
• Wisconsin – Rudy Giuliani (WPR/St. Norbert’s College) – 2/19/08
• Texas – Mike Huckabee (IVR) – 3/4/08
• Pennsylvania – Rudy Giuliani (Quinnipiac) – 4/22/08
• North Carolina – Mike Huckabee (Public Policy Polling) – 5/6/08

HT: Politics and Christianity  they also have their predictions here.

Real Clear Politics Poll Averages – As of 1/3/08 (National and lead off states)

Nationally

1. Giuliani – 20.0%  2. McCain – 17.2%  3. Huckabee – 17.0%  4. Romney -  15.0%  5. Thompson – 11.4%  6. Paul – 4.2%

Iowa – 1/3/08 (Delegates at Stake: 41)

1. Huckabee – 29.7%  2. Romney – 26.7%  3. McCain – 11.8%  4. Thompson – 11.7%  5. Paul – 7.3%  6. Giuliani – 6.0%

New Hampshire – 1/8/08 (Delegates at Stake: 24)

1. McCain – 31.3%  2. Romney – 28.8%  3. Giuliani – 10.0%  4. Huckabee – 9.5%  5. Paul – 7.0%  7. Thompson – 2.3%

Michigan 1/15/08 (Delegates at Stake: 61)

1. Romney – 19.85  2. Huckabee – 18.8%  3.  McCain – 13.0%  4. Giuliani – 12.5%  5. Thompson – 6.5%  6. Paul – 4.3%

Nevada – 1/19/08 (Delegates at Stake: 34)

1. Giuliani – 23.7%  2. Romney – 23.7%  3. Huckabee – 15.3%  4. Thompson – 9.7%  5. McCain – 7.3%  6. Paul – 5.0%

South Carolina – 1/19/08 (Delegates at Stake: 47)

1. Huckabee – 25.8%  2. Romney – 19.3%  3. Thompson – 13.5%  4. McCain – 13.0%  5. Giuliani – 12.8%  6. Paul – 6.3%

Florida – 1/29/07 (Delegates at Stake: 114)

1. Giuliani – 25.3%  2. Huckabee – 23.3%  3.  Romney – 19.0%  4. McCain – 11.0%  5. Thompson – 8.8%  6. Paul – 3.3%

California – 2/5/08 (Delegates at Stake: 173)

1. Giuliani – 25.7%  2. Huckabee – 16.3%  3. Romney – 15.3%  4. McCain – 12.3%  5. Thompson – 9.7%

Some thoughts: Thompson is done.  I don’t even know why he is still in the ra
ce.  He was DOA.  Ron Paul is done, the internet hype has not produced the type of poll results that you would have thought, and the money he has been able to fundraise has done nothing for him.  Guiliani is not predicted to even finish in the top three until Nevada where he tied with Romney (who I believe will win Nevada), and he has lost ground to Mike Huckabee in Florida.  If Giuliani does not pull out a victory in Florida.  I think he is done.  Basically, national polls mean nothing.  Personally I think Romney will be done by 2/5/08.  We’ll see.  Anyway I may be drinking kool-aid and I’m certainly no expert, but if Huckabee wins here (Iowa) tonight, and McCain wins in New Hampshire, and Giuliani doesn’t fair better – look for Huckabee and McCain to go up, Giuliani to trend down in the national polls.

That’s my take, and I could be completely wrong.  It wouldn’t be the first time.  But it is fun to guess.

Well, hi-ho, hi-ho off to caucus I go.  I will blog on my experience caucusing and the results, etc.

Tags: Fred Thompson, Iowa Caucus, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, National Polls, Predictions, Presidential Race '08, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, State Polls

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