Everybody Knows Except for Mike Huckabee



Image of Huckabee Inside Crystal Ball

Yes, Mr. Deace, I See Huckabee Fading Into The Background...

Steve Deace of WHO Radio in Des Moines knows.  Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican knows.  Erik Erikson of Red State (who is also a talk show host at Radio WSB in Atlanta) knows.   The Des Moines Register used to know. What do they know that Governor Mike Huckabee doesn’t know?   That he isn’t running for president in 2012.

Every one of the above has run polls or made predictions about how each of a number of candidates will fare during the upcoming Presidential primary/caucus season.  Each has left out Governor Huckabee, even though he continues to lead when polled for favorability, and when in national or many state horse races.  Do they do this because he has announced he is not running?  No, they don’t.  The only announcement made was that he wouldn’t make a decision until summer’s approach.  How do they know, then?  These soothsayers use eight kinds of divination….

Halomancy – Divination using salt

Some pundits know, based on his diet, Huckabee isn’t running.   Seriously, they think he isn’t running because he has put on a few pounds?   Tell that to Chris Christie in New Jersey.

Uranomancy – Divination by consulting the heavens

Some of these folks are certain the stars have not aligned for Huckabee.  They are able to take any poll and make the worst of it.  For example, for the longest time Huckabee was leading polls only in conservative, “red” states, mostly in the south.  This was proof he can’t reach out to the moderates and independents and therefore he won’t run.  Recent polls show he has done well in California and New Jersey.  This is proof now he isn’t running because he is too moderate to win the GOP nomination.

Capnomancy – Divination by smoke

Some people can’t understand or control Mike Huckabee.  If he doesn’t do things the way they think he ought, it is obvious he has no presidential ambitions. Take for example, the claim by some that if the Governor really wanted to win in 2012, he would participate in this week’s CPAC convention.  Never mind that he has already given principled reasons why he isn’t going to participate.  Even some former supporters are getting antsy.  Mike Huckabee is a fun guy to have in Iowa; reporters love him.  They hope they can goad him into coming to Iowa or their state more frequently.  Six Stops in February in Iowa isn’t enough.

Keraunoscopia – Divination using thunder

Mike Huckabee isn’t running because his wife won’t let him.  And bad decisions on pardons will continue to haunt him.   The talk show hosts are against him.  He has a bad reputation with fiscal conservatives.  He is too religious and wants to turn the whole country into Taliban II.  Besides the slander that most of this involves, it is mostly wishful thinking.  It is hearing what his opponents want to hear.

Ailuromancy – Divination by studying a cat’s jump

Apparently there was some miscommunication between Governor Huckabee and Bob Vander Plaats, who announced last week that Governor Huckabee would be the speaker in the FAMiLY LEADER lecture series in June.  Others are certain his cruise to Alaska is proof he won’t run.   His book tour in Iowa and South Carolina only means he can sell books there, not that he is reaching out to potential voters.

Botanomancy – Divination using plants

The former governor has moved to Florida.  And he is building a big 2-3 million dollar house and obviously he can’t pay that off and run for president.   But who know what other arrangements he has made to pay it off.   The talk show hosts don’t know.   But they have read the tea leaves.  Others are sure that he won’t run because every single campaign aide that could possibly help him in Iowa has already committed to other candidates.  (The truth is that very few movers and shakers have publicly committed to other candidates, none of whom have announced).

Enoptromancy – Divination using a mirror

These are the folks who can’t imagine they would ever give up a lucrative TV deal and all the money that goes with it. And that is doubly true for the the Hick from Arkansas, who can’t resist the filthy lucre.  They don’t see his character, however; they only see their own.

Extispicy – Divination using entrails

This is the dissecting that goes on, and the gut feeling they get, as if they knew what was going on inside the belly of Governor Huckabee.   They read recently that he paid off a few small lingering debts and closed his 2008 Huckabee for President organization and now they know he is not running.

Some of these things may be legitimate reasons to speculate he may not be running. And it is certainly fine to make guesses or predictions.   But to say you know for sure?   I won’t play the game and say I know he is going to run for president.  I don’t know one way or the other. Maybe he doesn’t know yet.   And you don’t need salt, a telescope, smoke, thunder, plants, mirrors, cats, or entrails to see that is a possibility.

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  • http://caffeinatedthoughts.com Shane Vander Hart

    I don’t know Shedlock, you seem to know a lot about Diviniation. Do you have something you’d like to confess :).

    We can make educated guesses, and candidates have more of a clue which way they’re leaning than they let on. He’s putting his foot in the door in some instances, but mostly he isn’t acting like he’s going to run.

    Or he’s taking Bob Vander Plaats’ advice to get in after the Ames Straw Poll which I think you and I agree is bad, horrible, no good advice.

  • http://caffeinatedthoughts.com Shane Vander Hart

    I don’t know Shedlock, you seem to know a lot about Diviniation. Do you have something you’d like to confess :).

    We can make educated guesses, and candidates have more of a clue which way they’re leaning than they let on. He’s putting his foot in the door in some instances, but mostly he isn’t acting like he’s going to run.

    Or he’s taking Bob Vander Plaats’ advice to get in after the Ames Straw Poll which I think you and I agree is bad, horrible, no good advice.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Shedlock/100000472261599 David Shedlock

      I often see things after they happen (but not always)….

      I see Fred Thompson getting in in September, skipping a debate the day he got in, and getting mocked by the other candidates…… NOT GOOD!

      I see Giuiliani skipping Iowa, NH, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina getting trounced in Florida. NOT GOOD!

      I see Mitt Romney spending bazillions of dollars, hours, and advertising space on WHO starting in early spring 2007 and getting nowhere. NOT HELPFUL

      I think throwing your hat in during June is….. NOT BAD!.

      • http://caffeinatedthoughts.com Shane Vander Hart

        Amen, for all candidates!

  • http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/ Texas Conservative

    David, you forgot to mention the Purple Tie!

    I am going to assume that Huckabee is running until he tells us that he is not running.

    It’s hard to wait, but we have been told that we have to. In the meantime, his supporters should be saving up their money so they can donate right away when he announces.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Shedlock/100000472261599 David Shedlock

      Saving my pennies…

  • Lynn

    The mark of a great leader is that his decision-making (while based on the counsel of others) is independent and not swayed by the superficial. Do we really want a president who lets such an important decision be arbitrarily dictated by pundits, bloggers and party leaders. Those folks have their own selfish reasons for wanting the ’12 race to begin now. They want to be hired, they want to have their blogs read, they want to be important, be relevant…. From someone outside of Iowa looking in, quite frankly, most of it seems pretty silly. Even if Huckabee has made a decision, it seems pretty good strategy to keep the platforms he currently has for delivering his message. After all, once he jumps in he will lose that. Plus what does he really have to gain by announcing before the summer? He’s leading in the polls (check out the RCP averages), he’s releasing a new policy book and his book tour schedule has him at 6 stops in Iowa (the most of any state) and 5 in South Carolina. He just got back from another successful trip to Israel (his 15th). I’m no political expert but it appears to me that he is keeping the door wide open.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Shedlock/100000472261599 David Shedlock

      Lynn, who said you have to be a political expert? They have no higher rate of correctly predicting these things than say “palm readers”.

    • http://caffeinatedthoughts.com Shane Vander Hart

      Or it could be he just knows he’ll sell a lot of books in those places…

      You could be right. I knocked Robinson when he declared him out because he didn’t speak at CPAC.

      • Lynn

        He is missing a lot of places where he could pack bookstores and sell a lot of books…he could have hit 2 cities in Iowa and SC and easily hit 3 other states.. I live in Indiana and he is not visiting my state nor Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, or Kentucky. We love him in the midwest and he knows that he would sell a ton of books here.

        No, this tour schedule is very indicative IMO. I am baffled that you can’t see that, Shane.

      • http://caffeinatedthoughts.com Shane Vander Hart

        I just added an “or” possibility. Palin did a similar thing, but it isn’t indicative that she’ll run. You could be right though.

  • http://iowadefensealliance.com/ Iowans Rock

    Love this post! Anyone who still has contact with Gov. Huckabee knows that he has not made a decision and he is not waiting for an earthly green light, but instead a different one.

  • Andersonde7

    Right on! Huckabee has said elsewhere he will not run unless he can see a clear path to the Presidency; that is, unless he has a reasonable chance of winning. As time passes, whether or not that path exists for 2012 will become more clear. Then he will decide.

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