Poll Shows Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins is in Trouble

Public Policy Polling released a poll taken in Iowa of 869 likely voters in Iowa between October 17th to October 19th.  They asked, “Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins is up for retention this year.  If the election was held today, would you vote yes to retain him or no to remove him from office?”

43% of Iowans said they would vote no on David Wiggins’ retention to the Iowa Supreme Court.  37% said they would vote yes.  20% are undecided.  This is movement from the last time Public Policy Polling asked this question showing a split decisionIowans for Freedom has since held a bus tour across the state and have aired a TV ad.

A few things to note about the poll.

  1. It is improperly weighted.  34% of those polled identified themselves as Democrat, 38% as Republicans, and 27% as independents/others.  Independents are the largest voting bloc in Iowa.  Since 2010 Republicans have surpassed Democrats in voter registration, but neither party has more than independents.
  2. Women are split on this issue.  37% say yes, 37% say no.   46% of men polled said they would vote no on Justice David Wiggins’ retention, 40% said they would vote yes.
  3. Republicans are more committed to ousting Justice David Wiggins.  65% said they would vote no on Wiggins.  Only 18% of Republicans said yes which is less than the 24% of Democrats who said they would vote no.  Independents were closer with 36% saying they would vote yes, 37% saying they would vote no and 27% said they were unsure.  As mentioned above this is the largest voting block.
  4. There were no crosstabs on race for this question unlike other questions they had in the poll.  It would have been interesting to see.
  5. The “No Wiggins” initiative leads among all age groups except the 18 to 29 category – 39% of that age group said yes on retaining Justice David Wiggins,  34% said no, and 27% were not sure.  30 to 45 age group 41% said no, 35% said yes, 24% undecided.  46 to 65 age group: 45% said no, 38% said yes, and 16% said not sure.  With those older than 65: 49% said no, 37% said yes and 15% said not sure.

Motivation here will be key since this is a back of the ballot initative.  It would seem that the “no” on Wiggins retention crowd has the motivation and the momentum.  Also, considering that in 2010 polling never showed those voting no on retention as being in lead prior to three Iowa Supreme Court justices being ousted.  This is huge and this poll definitely shows Justice Wiggins days on the Iowa Supreme Court may be numbered.