Predictably enough, most media commentators have totally misinterpreted the nature of Mike Huckabee’s big win in the Iowa GOP caucuses. Conventional wisdom says that he swept to victory based on overwhelming support from Evangelicals, but conventional wisdom is flat-out wrong. According to the exit polls used by major news networks, a majority of voters who described themselves as “evangelical” or “born again” Christians actually voted against Huckabee –with 54% splitting their support among Romney, McCain, Thompson and Ron Paul. Yes, Huckabee’s 46% of Evangelicals was a strong showing, but it was directly comparable to his commanding 40% of women, or 40% of all voters under the age of 30, or 41% of those earning less than $30,000 a year. His powerful appeal to females, the young and the poor make him a different kind of Republican, who connects with voting blocs the GOP needs to win back. He’s hardly the one-dimensional religious candidate of media caricature.
Also how does the media and pundits explain his rise in the latest poll (1/4/08) in New Hampshire which is a state clearly not dominated by evangelicals. He clearly has a lot of ground to make up, and history does not bode well for Iowa Caucus winners in the Granite State, but the fact that he has now passed Rudy Giuliani in the polls is encouraging. My take is that a win by Senator McCain helps Huckabee. Then Romney has to win Michigan which is very much in play.
American Research Group
HT: Harris Brothers