If you haven’t been watching this story over the weekend. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the “winner” over Mir Hossein Mousavi. People are demonstrating on the streets, and now there is a report that Mousavi was arrested.
Juan Cole, President of the Global Americana Institute, lists several pieces of evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election was stolen, but doesn’t seem to think that the government will change.
So, there are protests against an allegedly stolen election. The Basij paramilitary thugs and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will break some heads. Unless there has been a sea change in Iran, the theocrats may well get away with this soft coup for the moment. But the regime’s legitimacy will take a critical hit, and its ultimate demise may have been hastened, over the next decade or two.
Ironically the chant that you hear in the video below is not what we are normally used to hearing coming out of Iran. It isn’t “death to America” or “death to Israel,” but “death to the government.”
Will this current government survive (as Cole puts it, get away with a soft coup), and if they do remain in place what stance will the Obama administration have toward a government that remains in power by fraud?
Will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.
Mega-Hat Tip: Memeorandum
Shane Vander Hart
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Both the U.S. and Mousavi have to walk a tightrope in terms of their actions towards one another. Mousavi is mildly anti-American, not extreme like Ahmadinejad, but not too pro-American either. That's why people in Iran liked him, he'd stand up to America, just not go out of his way to antagonize us or Israel. So the U.S. definitely has to let the Mousavi camp make the first move if they're going to intervene at all, because if Mousavi is being seen as too cozy with the U.S., he will lose support. I could be wrong about that but that's why Mousavi would have to make the first move, because he knows a lot more about the situation than any American, even Obama or foreign service officials.
Just think if it were us in that situation with (probable) massive election fraud… we wouldn't want China or Russia or the UK or Germany butting their heads in too quickly either. Frankly, our track record in Iran when we do get involved is not too great either. They actually had a true, free democracy back in the 50's, but we overthrew it because we thought it was too pro-Soviet. We installed a pro-American dictator who lasted about 26 years and then the current theocracy overthrew him.
Great blog post on the turmoil in Iran. Keep up the good work.
Well I think Mousavi would certainly be an improvement, but I agree with you that we shouldn't get involved. Then again I'm not sure restoring all diplomatic ties with an illegitimate government is appropriate either.
Thanks!