President Barack Obama would have a battle on his hands.  According to a Rasmussen poll out today:

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.

In both match-ups, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, with three percent (3%) undecided. (read the rest)

Margin of error is (-/+ 3)

Like I’ve said before I’m not convinced that Governor Palin is running in 2012.  Mitt Romney definitely is as he’s pretty much been in full-time campaign mode.  I would have also been interested in seeing match-ups with other potential GOP candidates just for curiosity’s sake.

Right now a poll this far out doesn’t mean much.  I think unless things turn around pretty quickly in the economy, things are going to continue to get worse for President Obama.  I’m not sure how well Governor Romney will continue to fare either when people realize what an utter failure RomneyCare in Massachusetts has been.


Again want to emphasize this is one poll, and as Wickle so aptly noted, it isn’t being held today.  Josh Painter while parsing today’s poll said the only ones who could take any solace from this poll are Romney and Palin.

Groups of political animals with different interests will be posturing all week long based on this poll. Romney backers, for example, will be crowing loudly over it, and we don’t want to rain on their parade. After all, their guy made a good showing, and they should have some fun with it. While we don’t think this merits a ticker tape parade, if they are looking for an excuse to party, this should qualify. 

Sarah Palin’s backers can also find some encouragement in the latest Rasmussen numbers. Being just six points back of the president, after another poll — one conducted by Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling in mid-March — showed Obama with a 20-point lead over Palin in the same hypothetical circumstances. If one were to say the PPP poll is as accurate as the Rasmussen survey (which Democrats always do; Republicans will argue the point in Scott Rasmussen’s favor), then Governor Palin has made a 14-point improvement against Obama in just four months. An April PPP poll had Obama ahead of Palin 53 percent to 41 percent — a twelve-point spread. Today’s Rasmussen results indicate that Gov. Palin has cut that lead in half in less than three months. But the 2012 elections are still years away, and Sarah Palin has not even started to campaign actively for 2012, if indeed she intends to do so.

The only group which will find nothing to help them put a positive spin on today’s poll news is the collective of Obama fans. These results tend to support other Rasmussen polling which shows the president at his lowest approval rating since taking the oath of office in January. This is what Obama’s supporters have feared the most.

2nd Update: To back up what I was saying about  Mitt Romney and his awful health care plan potentially kneecapping his 2012 presidential bid, I give you exhibit A and exhibit B.  "He’ll have to find a way to distance himself from it to have a shot at the GOP nomination in 2012.”  I don’t see how that is possible since he touted it in 2008.

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  1. I cringe when I see the same old names mentioned for 2012. Huckabee needs to come to an understanding that he should not be running. Palin has been grievously lambasted by the media until she is no longer a viable candidate. It’s not right, but it’s true. Romney is a possibility. Guliani, please!

    It’s time to move to a new list of names. Bobby Jindal would be interesting. But here is the proper Republican nominee for 2012. He won’t register now in the minds of most people but by then he will be kicking tail.

    1. I don’t think polling really shows that she would be out of it, but like I’ve said I don’t think she’s made up her mind on running for President in 2012 or ever.

      Guliani won’t run again, if he does, he’s stupid. He wouldn’t stand a chance. Romney will have to answer for the health care plan that he touted. Jindal is just too young right now, and not charismatic enough, IMO, but he is a solid conservative and is definitely very smart.

      Governor Daniels name has been tossed out there so your mentioning him doesn’t surprise me. He would make an interesting candidate. If I had to choose between him and Romney I’d go with Daniels.

  2. My parents watch a lot of NASCAR. Often during races, the networks will show the points race “if the race were to end right now.” My father often yells back at the TV, “But it’s not!”

    I admit, that’s what I did when I read this title.

    In 1991, Pres. Bush was doing very well on his success in Iraq. It didn’t take long to turn that around and lose handily to Gov. Clinton in 1992. 2009 is WAAY too early to see anything meaningful about 2012.

    Your point, though, is good. Pres. Obama is going to have to deliver on some of what he promised, or he’s doomed. I don’t think that Govs. Romney or Palin are the best ones to make that happen, and eventually I’ll admit that I agree with Greg that Gov. Huckabee is also probably not the one.

    All that being said … the Republicans have to get their act together if they want to take advantage of this.
    .-= Wickle´s last blog ..From Pro-Life/Anti-War =-.

    1. “2009 is WAAY too early to see anything meaningful about 2012.

      Yeah I did say that :).

      I agree with you on Romney, he’s going to have the same challenges he had in 2008 – he didn’t govern as a conservative – looking at RomneyCare, not even fiscally. With Palin, I think she could do it, but like I mentioned before I don’t even know if she’s running. A lot will depend on what she ends up doing in the couple of years provided she decides to run.

      I like Huckabee, but he’s still going to be attacked by fiscal conservatives – though I think he has a lot more credibility lately on the stimulus than the Beltway GOP who is in love with Romney.

  3. Good to see Obama’s numbers down, but I too am hoping to see some new faces in the race.

  4. Note that Romney has tried to claim that he wasn’t responsible for the cost overrruns of the MA program. If we accept that at face value he’s still got serious problems because what it means is that he didn’t work out the funding details and left it hanging with the legislature.

    Right now the legislature is working to ‘bend the curve’ and actually reduce the costs by changing to a payment-per-person rather than a payment-per-procedure model.

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