Bumped up after being posted yesterday – see updates below.

10/26/09

So I’m not going to get excited about it, but it is progress.  And it is a poll commissioned by Club for Growth who have endorsed Doug Hoffman.  I don’t know anything about Bassman Research who conducted the poll.

But here is the information:

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

If you are interested in the internal info for the poll, here you go.  I would say this is likely more accurate than the Daily Kos poll done prior to the major endorsements and media exposure that Doug Hoffman received.

Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota is off the fence and has endorsed Doug Hoffman:

We cannot send more politicians to Washington who wear the Republican jersey on the campaign trail, but then vote like Democrats in Congress on issues like card check and taxes. After reviewing the candidates’ positions, I’m endorsing Doug Hoffman in New York’s special election. Doug understands the federal government needs to quit spending so much, will vote against tax increases, and protect key values like the right to vote in private in union elections.

The Democrats have a new ad targeting Doug Hoffman, you can tell by who they focus on who they are most afraid of.  I don’t believe it is Dede Scozzafava at this point.

Update: Gauntlet thrown down… endorse by Wednesday high noon.  I don’t see this changing the minds of those who haven’t endorsed.  I do agree that an endorsement that comes after Wednesday will do little good and is just for show.

2nd Update (10/27/09): American Spectator confirms meltdown – a second poll has Hoffman leading.

Like yesterday’s Club for Growth poll, this one is sponsored by a conservative organization, the Minuteman PAC, but even with that grain-of-salt factor, a trend is becoming apparent:

  • Doug Hoffman (Conservative) 34%
  • Bill Owens (Democrat) 29%
  • Dede Scozzafava (GOP) 14%

Stacy McCain also has background on how Scozzafava was picked by the GOP establishment.  Glad to see Newt backing this process.

3rd Update: Former NRCC Chair – Representative Tom Cole (R-OK) endorses Hoffman and Senator Jim Demint (R-SC) now endorses Hoffman.

The head of the Neighborhood Research, Rick Shaftan says Scozzafava is fading fast.

She’s [Scozzafava] going to end up in single digits and Hoffman is going to top 50%.

If Scozzafava is even remotely in this thing, why are the Democrats solely focusing on Hoffman? And they are even downplaying their expectations of a win in this race… from The Hill:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its allies have not run advertisements attacking Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava since Oct. 20, a week ago. Instead, the party has focused solely on knocking down Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Meanwhile, Democratic strategists in Washington are privately beginning to downplay expectations for the race, hinting that they would not be surprised if Hoffman were to win outright, defeating both Scozzafava and attorney Bill Owens (D).

9 comments
  1. We’ll see …

    I don’t really think that polls constitute news, especially not some of these. The Club poll surveyed 300 people, which is almost an irrelevant sample, and I don’t see much about the breakdown or selection method.

    I can’t even find the sample size on the Minuteman poll.

    Still, I’d like those results to be accurate. I have an intense dislike for the two-party system and the extra-Constitutional power it grants to people … and the power it shuts out from other people who don’t stick R or D after their names.

    So, we’ll see. I’d like to see the Republican Party be in the position of spoiler … and still fail. I’d like to see Gingrich taken down a couple notches. In many ways, I’d like to see this play out just like these polls suggest.

    My fear, of course, is that the Dem will still win and everyone will blame conservatives who dared step off the reservation … just like we were blamed for the McCain nomination. If we had just gotten behind Romney like we were told to, then McCain never would have won.
    .-= Wickle´s last blog ..Attacking incivility =-.

    1. @Wickle, I see a pattern… previous polls showed Hoffman with momentum before the endorsements and national exposure.

      With the poll sample size, I’m not sure what is the norm for a congressional race. I’ve seen statewide polls done with just 500. I think it really depends on how populous the district is, and it sounds like NY 23 is pretty rural.

      But you are right in that the only poll that truly matters is the one done on November 3 :).

      I think though even if the Dem wins and Scozzafava comes in third… the argument could be made if she’d gotten out of the race, Hoffman would have won. It swings both ways.

      With Romney… operative phrase… “if we’d gotten behind Romney like we were told to” like good little Republicans obeying the establishment. No thank you. The only principle that Romney follows is winning.

      1. @Shane Vander Hart, Yeah … a quick note about “statistically significant samples” and me … my wife is a calculus teacher, and I spent far too much time studying research methods in college. Would you like to see our pocket-protector collection?

        Anyway … obviously, you’re right, if the Dem wins the argument can go either way, but it at least gives the people echoing Gingrich some credibility.

        If, of course, Hoffman wins then the GOP establishment loses A LOT of its power to boss people around. Because of New York, of all places … who’da thunk? (Of course, upstate NY is very different from NYC. I used to live in Plattsburgh when my father was in the Air Force.)
        .-= Wickle´s last blog ..Attacking incivility =-.

      2. @Wickle, From Real Clear Politics – http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2009/10/ny23_poll_hoffman_5.html

        The poll was taken Oct. 25-26 of 366 likely voters.

        I saw the Daily Kos poll done earlier was done with 600 voters…

        http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/21/NY/403

        Both Minute Men and Club for Growth should have attempted to have larger sample sizes to add credibility.

        I don’t know if it was an issue of when they were conducting the polls. Research 2000 who conducted the Daily Kos poll, polled people from 10/19-21, Club for Growth with Bassman Research did there’s from 10/24-25, and Neighborhood Research that did the poll for Minutemen PAC conducted their poll on 10/25-26.

        So Daily Kos had an extra day, and didn’t poll on the weekend.

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