A Victory Enterprises poll conducted on June 17, 2010 shows State Senator Brad Zaun (R-Urbandale) leading Congressman Leonard Boswell by 9 points. When asked, “If the general election were held today for whom would you vote?” 41% said Zaun, 31.8% said Boswell with 26.8% being undecided.
Also only 28.6% of those surveyed said that Boswell deserves to be re-elected, with 52.3% saying it’s time to give somebody else a chance.
While there is still a large percentage of people who are undecided, this polling doesn’t bode well for Boswell in a year where the Democrat brand has been damaged due to overspending and Obamacare and an anti-incumbent tone. Zaun is well positioned to be extremely competitive.
What should make this polling even more troubling for the Boswell campaign is the demographic breakdown:
The respondents were 43% Democrat, 38% Republican and 19% Independent. In addition, 48% were male and 52% female. 66% of the respondents were from Polk County with the remaining 34% balanced, according to previous off-year turnout models, from the remaining eleven counties that make-up the 3rd District.
Age breakouts were as follows:18-34 – 13.3%
35-49 – 25.8%
50-63 – 32.0%
64+ – 29.0%
With more Democrats being polled than Republicans, and more women than men it Boswell should be concerned that he trails by 9 points at this point in the race.
This is internal polling commissioned by the Zaun campaign, but I did say earlier after the primary, that I would never doubt his internal polling again since it was pretty dead on. I’m keeping my word.
You can read the polling summary below:
Update: Linked by Jim Geraghty at National Review’s The Campaign Spot
2nd Update: Linked at The Beanwalker