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I would be interested to see an independent, external poll on the Iowa Third Congressional District Race.  Since that never happened in the Iowa Republican Primary race I am not going to hold my breath.  Perhaps we’ll see it the week before the election.

The Iowa Republican reported that a poll commissioned by the Polk County Republicans shows that State Senator Brad Zaun leads incumbent Democratic Congressman Leonard Boswell 45.3% to 38%.  This poll was also conducted by Victory Enterprises who released in June another poll showing Zaun leading Boswell 41% to 31.8%.  This shows a tighter race, but with fewer undecided voters.  Other interesting items to note with this recent poll of 300 likely voters:

  • Zaun beats Boswell in Polk County, 46.5% to 38.4%
  • Among Independent voters, Zaun again leads Boswell, 41.3% to 31.7%
  • Boswell hard re-elect is only at 24.7% with a total re-elect of 34%, but 51.3% of voters say it’s time for a new person.
  • 25.4% of Democrats say it’s ‘definitely time’ for a new person
  • Zaun earns support from 26.2% of Democrats

Zaun carried the Republican Primary in June via a strong showing in Polk County.  He has good name recognition in his home county, and is a tough campaigner.  The polling among independents and Democrats is definitely reflective of an anti-incumbency year.  Boswell’s campaign should not only be troubled by the independent polling, but when over a quarter of your base is voting for the other guy that doesn’t bode well for reelection chances.  A lot can change in 12 weeks, but this definitely looks good for the Zaun campaign, and knowing Zaun’s work ethic I know he’ll keep the pressure on.

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