Before I say anything else about The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll I want to say this – the only poll that matters is what happens on Tuesday. This year the Register’s polling hasn’t been the most accurate as they were considerably wrong about the results of the Republican Gubernatorial primary; so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again. If that is the case I think any inaccuracies would favor Republicans based on what we’ve seen in national polling, generic ballot Congressional race polling, enthusiasm, and dissatisfaction among the electorate.
I could be wrong though.
Looking at what the poll does say there is little good news for Iowa Democrats, at least none that required spin… like the headline “Culver cuts a bit into Branstad’s lead.” Wow. Governor Chet Culver still only has 38% to former Governor Terry Branstad’s 50%, that is a horrible place to be in for an incumbent two days out. Kathie Obradovich has this one right when she said pending a natural disaster on Tuesday, Branstad wins (and all that would do is delay the vote).
Senator Chuck Grassley will win in a landslide, as he leads 60% to 31%. All that Roxanne Conlin proved is that she can blow a lot of money in the process of getting stomped in the polling booth.
It is going to be difficult for Democrats down the ticket to out perform the top of the ticket.
The Register didn’t have sample sizes large enough to break down each Congressional race (it would mean a larger margin of error), but the generic congressional ballot those surveyed when asked “Will you vote for the Democrat or the Republican or some other candidate or will you likely not cast a vote on this?” Republicans led 48% to 41% for the Democrats. They note that in both the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts the Democratic incumbent Representatives Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell are at risk to losing to Republican challengers Marianette Miller-Meeks and Brad Zaun. I’m unsure why they ignore the 1st Congressional District which implies incumbent Bruce Braley has a significant lead. Ben Lange has run a tough campaign and I would be surprised if that race isn’t in fact a toss-up, but again the only poll that matters is what happens on Tuesday. I don’t think any reasonable person predicted in this current environment that Congressman Steve King in Iowa’s 5th Congressional District and Congressman Tom Latham in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District were going to have problems with reelection.
The Des Moines Register decided not to poll the State Treasurer, Secretary of State, State Auditor or Secretary of Agriculture races, but did poll (or at least released) the Attorney General race. They have incumbent Attorney General Tom Miller leading Brenna Findley by 11 points. There are still a lot of undecideds in this race (21%), with higher turnout for Republicans expected, with the latest news of unethical fundraising Attorney General Tom Miller, and with the top-of-the-ticket performing poorly she could still pull this out.
It’s too bad we don’t get to see how the Secretary of State candidate Matt Schultz, State Treasurer candidate Dave Jamison, State Auditor Dave Vaudt and Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey are polling though. I’m sure that means the Republican ticket is doing quite well. All of which bodes well for the state legislature races.
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