imageOk, they didn’t quite phrase it that way, but when I noticed the final USA Today/Gallup poll looking at Americans intentions on how they vote for Congress over on Memeorandum it is hard not to be confident.  Polling likely voters there is a 15% gap between Republicans and Democrats in the generic ballot.  

Of those likely voters 55% said they intend to vote for a Republican candidate with 40% indicating they would vote for a Democrat candidate.  The gap with registered voters is much less with 48% going Republican and 44% going Democrat.  This also demonstrates a huge, huge enthusiasm gap demonstrated for us in Ohio when there was an underwhelming turnout when President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday.

This poll also looks to be without precedent:

Gallup models the number of seats a party will control based on that party’s share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives, using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2006. The model takes into account the majority party in Congress entering the elections.

Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.

But the cautionary tale…

Additionally, efforts by state legislatures in recent years have attempted to insulate incumbent members of Congress from strong partisan tides such as are in force this year. Congressional district lines have been drawn to make them safe for specific parties, which may reduce the impact of national trends on election outcomes.

This could be bigger than 1994 where Republicans had a 54 seat gain in the House, but I don’t want to count on it.  The only poll that counts is the one that happens on Tuesday (and those who voted early).  Gallup said the key is turn-out and it looks like the Republicans have an edge there.

5 comments
  1. 9/11 happend under the watch of republicans. The financial meltdown happened under the watch of republicans. The economy tanked under the watch of republicans. Why on earth does anybody believe they can get us out of the mess they created? It took them 8 years to get us there and now people think less then 2 years is enough to get us out? It takes more than that to undo the damages. Think twice before you vote for any republican. They can’t be trusted.

    1. I think you forgot it was a Democratic Congress that was in power when the financial meltdown occurred, just saying. Bush didn’t handle it well either.

      Obama, Pelosi and Reid are making it worse.

      People are waking up to the realization they don’t like the change that Obama represents.

      1. The meltdown started with letting banks run wild because existing regulations were no longer enforced and that was long before the Democrats won! Also, when Bush took over it was all Republicans and we had no deficit! It is so said to see how many people don’t realize what happened. The American Dream was destroyed under the Republican watch and electing the same party back and think they can fix is just insanity.

      2. Who pushed for sub-prime loans? Listen neither party has been great on the economy in the past. I agreed with the Republican tax cuts, but they also needed to reign in spending which they didn’t do. Government growth and increased spending won’t help pull us out of the hole we are currently in.

        I’ve voted against that. If the Republicans who are elected don’t act and do what they say they’re going to do they’ll be sent packing if not in the general election, then certainly they’ll have a primary challenge.

      3. The sub-prime crisis was pointed out in 2006. Here is some info that should you make think twice who is out there to protect you:
        The basic reason is that the mortgage industry rewarded brokers for persuading borrowers to take a loan with an interest rate higher than that for which the borrower qualified. “On average,” the Journal reported, “US mortgage brokers collected 1.88 percent of the loan amount for originating a subprime loan, compared to 1.48 percent for conforming [conventional] loans, according to Wholesale Access, a mortgage research firm.”
        The big banks reaped massive profits from the victimization of millions of low- and middle-income borrowers. Moreover, the explosive growth of the subprime sector was a critical element in the creation of a vast edifice of inflated values based on high-risk investments that reaped returns of 20 percent or more, far more than could be extracted from investment in the production of material goods and infrastructure.
        And who was in power and failed to protect the American Dream? Who and when stated the bail-out of the banks and Detroit? It was 2008 in September/October weeks before the election. When Obama took office the economy was rock bottom and all what could have been done is government spending to create jobs. But who was against it and all financial advisors said what ever emerged was too small. This was the fault of the Republicans who blocked every thing. Tax cuts for the rich? Why? The tale that they will invest and create jobs is just a tale. In California, Republican candidates have spent combined $200 Mio of their own money but have not created a single job. Spending, there is not much left to save. Schools don’t get money, infrastructure is falling apart because it is not kept up, we are loosing the technological edge because we don’t invest in future technologies and soon fall behind China! I predict the day cheap jobs are coming back from the rest of the World to the US is upon us. WE need a forward thinking party and that is not what Republicans stand for.

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