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I have in my possession a U.S. quarter that, when thrown in the air, will land “heads” 100% of the time.  It is not a two headed quarter, and anyone can throw it and have the same result.  In fact, YOU have the same “magic quarter” in your pocket right now!  I’ll tell you how to “activate the magic” in your own quarter!

First,  pull out a blank sheet of paper, and write “Heads” on the top left of the paper and “Tails” on the top right.  Second, pull out your “magic quarter” and flip it in the air.  If it comes up heads, check the “Heads” column, and if it’s tails, check the “Tails” column.  You do this as many times as you want the size of your “sample” to be.

Viola!  You now have, in your possession, a Quarter that comes up “Heads” 100% of the time!  You may be wondering how your quarter can be a “magic quarter”  when you have both Heads and Tails columns marked on your paper.  It’s very simple, pick up your sheet of paper and look on the left side  at the “Heads” column….THERE’S YOUR SAMPLE!  As long as you have at least ONE MARK in the  “Heads” column, you have “100% heads” in that sample, don’t you?   Rip the paper in half  and just throw away the tails column  if you want, the tails column happens to be  useless in our “specific” survey.

This is how the new AP-GFK POLLmanages to say that “The level of opposition to the U.S. health care law has decreased, according to a phone survey of 1,001 adults conducted Jan. 5-10.” They changed the “sample” by NOT using “Registered” or even “Likely” voters in this poll, like they did in their previous poll  right after the November elections. This kept the sample of Democrats at 42, but LOWERED the sample of Republicans from 48 to 36! WOW…no wonder the number of people against the health care bill dropped!

So when people tell you opposition for the Health Care Bill is decreasing, pull out your “magic quarter”, and tell them the same magic the AP used in their poll in in YOUR quarter.   Toss it up, and if it comes up “Tails”, tell them “that one doesn’t count, it is not part of my poll” 

And if they don’t accept YOUR poll, they cannot accept the AP poll.

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3 comments
  1. There’s nothing wrong with the poll itself, though I’ll agree that it’s problematic trying to compare polls that look at likely voters (which was done int his case shortly before the election) with polls that look at people geneally. In any event, this particular poll shows that, at least as of last week, about as many people support Obamacare as oppose it. Further, the total percentage of those opposed to it has dropped from 47% to 41% since the November 3-8, 2010 poll, which like the most recent one was not limited to likely voters. Hardly seems like a strong mandate for repeal.

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