I think it stinks we’re losing a district, but we’ve known it was coming.  Here is the first proposed map from the Legislative Services Agency below:

image

This first try puts Congressmen Steve King (R-IA) and Tom Latham (R-IA) in the 4th Congressional District.  It then places Congressmen Bruce Braley (D-IA) and Dave Loebsack (R-IA) find themselves both in the new 1st District.  Both sets would have to primary each other if they don’t move (and decide to run for reelection).

A couple of quick thoughts…

  • I think the 3rd Congressional District looks less hospitable to Congressman Leonard Boswell without Grinnell.  My prediction is that Congressman Tom Latham will move south and challenge him or that Boswell will retire.
  • The 2nd Congressional District looks a little less friendly for Democrats without Linn County.  The makeup of the district is pretty interesting.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Loebsack stay and primary Braley. (Update: Scratch that, I didn’t make a prediction, but if I did I would have been wrong.  There will not be a Braley-Loebsack primary to look forward to.)
  • The 1st Congressional District looks like safe territory for Democrats with Linn County being added which is why I think Loebsack will stay, it will be extremely challenging for a Republican to win a general election there with Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Waterloo and Cedar Falls being the district.
  • The 4th Congressional District remains red meat land, and it will be extremely difficult for a Democrat to win there.

I’m thinking as far as first drafts go, not so bad.

7 comments
  1. I’m loving this map from the standpoint of a libertarian Republican! Tea party/Campaign for Liberty/libertarian Republicans could be a big swing vote in King vs. Latham, pulling both of them our way. And there are 2 open GOP primaries (assuming Latham doesn’t move into the 3rd) in what could be competitive districts (2 and 3). Even in the 1st, a candidate with Ben Lange’s money and Will Johnson’s message probably would have swiped that out of Braley’s hands in 2010, though any Republican will have trouble there when Obama is back on top of the ticket.

    As a Butler County resident, however, I don’t like it. We identify more with Waterloo/Cedar Falls, Dubuque, and Cedar Rapids than without whatever is in that desert to the west of us :-). Though I do have family out there, so I could visit my grandparents after the convention in Fort Dodge.

  2. 1st District – This is Braley’s district. Loebsack is a weak incumbent and wouldn’t want to risk a primary

    2nd District – Loebsack may run here but its possible Boswell may run here. He used to live in Decatur county but moved to Des Moines after he got put in the 5th district.

    3rd District – This reminds me of the 1990s 4th District. They took out Ames and Newton from Neal Smith’s district and added in a lot of freeper territory in southwest Iowa. This probably contributed to Smith losing in 1994. The 3rd district may elect a republican, but they would elect a moderate like Ganske.

    4th District. Hopefully Latham runs here. He has a lot of experience and money to take down a backwards yahoo like King in a primary.

    Basically, its a gamble. Its possible to have an all democrat delegation in a wave year (like 2006) but also possible to have a split delegation in a bad year (like 2006)

  3. Basically it looks good to me. I’m an ABK Republican (Anybody But King) from Cass County so it takes us out of King’s area and puts into Leonard Boswell’s area. I hope we can find a good centrist Republican candidate to run against him.

  4. Wow, the districts appear to follow county lines. How novel!

    You should see Maryland’s congressional map from the 2000 redistricting. Gerrymandering extraordinaire! The westernmost district abuts and runs alongside the easternmost district. If you use the right colors, Harford County looks like a block of neapolitan ice cream.

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