Even with Herman Cain leading the current Iowa Poll (23%) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney behind by one point (22%), the Caucus is still wide open.  The magic number is 59.  Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed can be persuaded to vote for a different candidate.  Compariing Romney with the other candidates he has the “hardest” support as he leads with voters whose minds are made up.

The problem for him I believe is that his numbers are capped.  Jennifer Jacobs also pointed out that he has other vulnerabilities:

The former Massachusetts governor earns the support of just 10 percent of those who say they definitely plan to vote in the caucuses (Cain is at 27 percent). And Cain dominates Romney among those who identify themselves as very conservative, by more than 3 to 1…

…another factor favoring Cain over Romney: More than half of likely caucusgoers think a representative of the core conservative base can win the White House in 2012. Only a third see a need to select a more moderate candidate with appeal to independents.

Cain leads in several areas which perplex me – the most conservative voters, tea party supporters and born-again Christians.  Does he also lead among those who seem to lack discernment as well?  It seems to me that Cain is the candidate du jour and he is leading because he’s extremely likeable.

Let me be clear here.  Leading a poll is one thing, but turning out people on Caucus night is quite another.  He lacks the organization (and apparently the desire – where is he?) to win here.  Look for Cain to start to decline in the polls, especially with upcoming debates as candidates will go after his statements on abortion.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is in good shape at third with 12% his RCP average is 11.2%.  I don’t believe he’ll win, but I can definitely see him coming in a strong third perhaps even 2nd.  He’s my favorite for a blizzard caucus.  Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is in 4th at 8%, Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Speaker Newt Gingrich are tied for 5th at 7%, and former Senator Rick Santorum is 6th at 5%.  Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is last at 1%.

Can Bachmann and Perry who were previous frontrunners in Iowa recapture some momentum?  It’s going to be extremely difficult. Bachmann recently made Eric Woolson her Iowa Campaign Manager.  Woolson ran former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s Iowa campaign in 2008, so this was a key hire.  I just wonder if it is too late.  We’ll see if Perry’s flat tax plan catches on.  Gingrich has been impressive in the debates and also impressed at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Presidential forum, but he just doesn’t have a campaign apparatus.  Santorum is at what I’m sure is a disappointing 5%, but he’s been campaigning hard.  He also has debated well, he articuates the issues well, and with soft support that exists with the other candidates he could sway people.

The Caucus season is on, and Iowans are paying attention.  Don’t be surprised to see a different front runner by December.  With the Iowa GOP Reagan Dinner this Friday, and The FAMiLY Leader Presidential Forum later next month things can change considerably.

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  1. Another thing that may sink Cain is the sexual harassment charges.  The worst part about it is that he seems to be playing coy.  He doesn’t remember if there was a settlement, and then suddenly he does.  He doesn’t seem that honest to me.  Are the charges true?  I don’t know, but if a settlement was paid, then it sure doesn’t look good.  I think it involved two separate women at different times.  At this point, I’m certainly not going to brush off the allegations out of hand.

    Regardless, Cain has a lot more problems, such as his doublespeak on abortion.  The caucus definitely looks interesting.  🙂  I hope one of the lesser candidates pulls a coup.  I recently read that Santorum was salivating all over Romney in 2008 and bad-mouthing Huckabee, which sure doesn’t bolster his conservative credentials.  I guess all we can do is pray for God’s will to be done, because He’s the [i]only[/i] one who can bring order out of this mess. 😉

    1. “I think one thing Christians should regularly pray for is divine discernment and objectivity.” 

      That’s good enough for Bachmann…
      Instead of prayer, I’d suggest education and a little more hard work in the mental exercise department. Reading broadly helps too. After all, “He helps those who help themselves.”

      I agree with the assessment of Cain. He dissembles poorly and transparently.

      1. I’d suggest education and a little more hard work in the mental exercise department. Reading broadly helps too.

        Those help too.   

      2. I’d suggest education and a little more hard work in the mental exercise department. Reading broadly helps too.

        Yes, those are helpful as well.   

  2. Well, I guess we’ll just have to hope for a blizzard….. :p

    Have you read Ron Paul’s plan to Restore America Now?  Balance the budget in 3 years while preserving social security and medicare and sending welfare to the states in block grants to handle free of federal mandates.  Cuts a trillion in one year.

    It works.

    None of the other plans address our problems.  

  3. Nice passing mention of Paul; but when it comes to organization in Iowa, Ron Paul beats all comers.  

    He brandished his organization last weekend at a straw poll where he secured 82% of Iowa ballots.  No one wins elections by 82%, but straw polls are test of organizational muscle.

    Before Paul started to win them, the GOP and Democrats considered straw polls a great show of a campaign’s organizational strength, and they were also regarded as a measure of a campaign’s momentum toward victory on election day.  Organizations like Morton Blackwell’s Leadership Institute used to even teach conservative activists how to organize and win straw polls.

    On election day, Paul has game.  The same establishment that “scattered” ballots in Ames knows it; they will resort much trickery to try to block Paul’s challenge to the status quo.

Comments are closed.

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