American Principles in Action commissioned a poll in Iowa that surveyed 501 likely Republican Iowa Caucus goers and found that they favor a return to a gold standard by a 3-to-1 margin. 57% of Iowa Republican caucus goers have a favorable opinion while only 17% had an unfavorable position. Not only that caucus goers are more likely (by a two-to-one margin) to vote for a candidate that backs a return to the gold standard. 31% of those surveyed said that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who backs the gold standard. 14% would be less likely, and 54% said it wouldn’t make a difference.
So perhaps this issue, especially with the economy and our national debt being at the forefront, could be a tipping point issue for some caucus voters. Jeffrey Bell, policy director for American Principles in Action said, "This new poll shows that the gold standard has significant and increasing public support in Iowa as a 2012 presidential issue.”
I also find the poll they took of the field interesting. Cain still leads, but by a very slim margin. Also no one candidate has a majority of support locked up. Among those who “definitely” support their candidate four are within the margin of error – 4.4%. Here are the results below:
If the Republican caucus for President were tomorrow and between (ROTATED) Minnesota Representative Michelle Bachmann, Businessman Herman Cain, Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Texas Representative Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
(PROBED THOSE WHO OFFERED ONE OF THE LISTED NAMES: And would that be DEFINITELY or PROBABLY vote for [INSERT CANDIDATE]?)
(PROBED THOSE WHO VOLUNTEERED “UNDECIDED” OR “DO NOT KNOW”: TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)
20% TOTAL CAIN (NET)
- 9% DEFINITELY HERMAN CAIN
- 8% PROBABLY HERMAN CAIN
- 3% LEAN HERMAN CAIN
19% TOTAL GINGRICH (NET)
- 8% DEFINITELY NEWT GINGRICH
- 7% PROBABLY NEWT GINGRICH
- 4% LEAN NEWT GINGRICH
14% TOTAL ROMNEY (NET)
- 8% DEFINITELY MITT ROMNEY
- 4% PROBABLY MITT ROMNEY
- 2% LEAN MITT ROMNEY
11% TOTAL BACHMANN (NET)
- 4% DEFINITELY MICHELLE BACHMANN
- 4% PROBABLY MICHELLE BACHMANN
- 2% LEAN MICHELLE BACHMANN
10% TOTAL PAUL (NET)
- 7% DEFINITELY RON PAUL
- 2% PROBABLY RON PAUL
- 1% LEAN RON PAUL
5% TOTAL PERRY (NET)
- 2% DEFINITELY RICK PERRY
- 2% PROBABLY RICK PERRY
- 1% LEAN RICK PERRY
4% TOTAL SANTORUM (NET)
- 2% DEFINITELY RICK SANTORUM
- 1% PROBABLY RICK SANTORUM
- 1% LEAN RICK SANTORUM
2% TOTAL HUNTSMAN (NET)
- 1% DEFINITELY JON HUNTSMAN
- 1% PROBABLY JON HUNTSMAN
- * LEAN JON HUNTSMAN
1% TOTAL JOHNSON (NET)
- 1% DEFINITELY GARY JOHNSON
- – PROBABLY GARY JOHNSON
- – LEAN GARY JOHNSON
13% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOLUNTEERED)
1% REFUSED (VOLUNTEERED)
Gingrich has gained ground in Iowa and is virtually tied with Cain. This echoes two national polls that have shown Gingrich surging while Cain is in decline. What this poll shows me is that the Iowa Caucus is still very wide open with no candidate having even “definite” support that goes beyond single digits while 13% are still hard undecided voters. Embracing the gold standard could help candidates like Santorum and Perry sway some voters their direction. Gingrich, Cain, and Paul have already publically backed the gold standard.
You can read the details of this poll below:
Update: Another poll done by Ann Seltzer of West Des Moines for Bloomberg released this week shows a four way race, but the interesting number is this – 60% of people surveyed could change their mind. This race is incredibly fluid, and Jeff Angelo is right it will ultimately be about how a candidate turns out voters on Caucus night. The question to ask is who has the best organization to do that?