Over 1000 people turnout for Paul's Iowa State University Rally on 12/9/11.

If you happened to talk to the mainstream media, and some Republican establishment types they would lead you to believe so.  It is such a common meme you’d think they had all received the same talking points, but that would be ridiculous right?  They say it would harm our first-in-the-nation status as well.

Look I think those who have read this blog enough would know that I’m not a Ron Paul fan, but if he wins the Iowa Caucus it will have to do with these three things:

  1. Superior organization and GOTV strategy.
  2. Lots of money to run effective ads.
  3. A general discontent with the status quo that the establishment tends to push and there’s no denying that he doesn’t represent the status quo.

Not because Iowans are some hicks who are so far outside the mainstream we don’t deserve our first in the nation status.  Ron Paul has built upon the foundation he laid in 2008, and it is reaping benefits for the Congressman.  As far as those who think this is just an Iowa phenomenon needs to see that Paul has made gains in New Hampshire and is tied with Newt Gingrich for 2nd in the latest Boston Globe poll.  He is third in the RCP average in New Hampshire, do those who are spinning this meme not think he’ll not pick up momentum if he doesn’t do well here?    While further back, Paul’s also polling third in South Carolina and third in Florida (last polls done before Gingrich decline).

That doesn’t sound like a fringe candidate, but a real contender.  A win in Iowa could be a game changer.

Photo by Dave Davidson, Prezography.com

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