Iowa2012I just want to draw your attention to the latest poll out there, out of 597 Iowa Republicans polled.

  1. Ron Paul – 23%
  2. Mitt Romney – 20%
  3. Newt Gingrich – 14%
  4. (Tie) Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry – 10%
  5. Jon Huntsman – 4%
  6. Gary Johnson – 2%

Something interesting to note:

Paul’s ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he’s run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

While I disagree on the candidates those polled have said run the best campaign in Iowa, I do agree with the larger point – being here matters.

Also things are tightening up a little more only 7% are undecided, but still 37% of those polled could end up supporting somebody else.  That’s still a significant number.  Paul could be peaking at the right time, but there is likely a higher ceiling for Romney here in Iowa, but not much.  He’s never polled higher than 25%.  I predict the winner of the Iowa Caucus will be in the low to mid 20s.

Kona Coffee

5 comments
  1. Apparently, I’ve been too involved in Christmas activities.  I missed the story of Newt’s dropping poll numbers.  Is there any particular misstep this is being blamed on?  The last I heard, the punditocracy had proclaimed Paul’s foreign policy statements at the last debate would cause him to LOSE support in Iowa…not pick it up.

    Also, a question, among the Bachmann/Santorum/Perry campaigns, do any of them have a chance if they don’t place at least third in the Iowa caucuses? 

  2. Mitt Romney had a great interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. Partisan Political Ideology aside, I thought that it gave Fox News viewers a great look at a decent man. Probably will not change the view of the anti-Mormon folks though.

      1. Mitt Romney on Morning Joe: “The nice thing that people had to go for in my case is I
        have a record. I was governor for four years. You can look at my record and see
        what I did and my beliefs were evident in the actions that I took… These
        experiences that I had as governor demonstrate a conservatism that I think
        people want to see. I ran for office and the positions I had four years ago are
        the same positions I’m campaigning on on today. I also wrote a book and wrote
        out my vision for America. Have I become more conservative over the years? Yeah.
        I think if you have been through the experience I have through, If you’ve been a
        governor of a liberal state and seen the policies that some of the liberals in
        the state wanted to put in place, you become more conservative and you become
        convinced that they are wrong and you are right.”

      2. Gov. Chris Christie on Morning Joe: “Everything is baloney until you start voting. No
        one’s voted yet. I know we have to talk about these polls since that’s what you
        [media] do everyday. Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee for
        president… and when he is, he’s proven in his career that he can reach across
        the aisle. He was governor of Massachussetts with an overwhelming Democratic
        legislature and he got things done.”

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