Iowa2012I just want to draw your attention to the latest poll out there, out of 597 Iowa Republicans polled.

  1. Ron Paul – 23%
  2. Mitt Romney – 20%
  3. Newt Gingrich – 14%
  4. (Tie) Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry – 10%
  5. Jon Huntsman – 4%
  6. Gary Johnson – 2%

Something interesting to note:

Paul’s ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he’s run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

While I disagree on the candidates those polled have said run the best campaign in Iowa, I do agree with the larger point – being here matters.

Also things are tightening up a little more only 7% are undecided, but still 37% of those polled could end up supporting somebody else.  That’s still a significant number.  Paul could be peaking at the right time, but there is likely a higher ceiling for Romney here in Iowa, but not much.  He’s never polled higher than 25%.  I predict the winner of the Iowa Caucus will be in the low to mid 20s.

Kona Coffee

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