Let me start by saying, I am just a contributor, this is not the official Caffeinated Thoughts prediction. For the prediction of the Caffeinated Thoughts founder and editor Shane Vander Hart, who is much more informed and in the loop than I, check here: Iowa Caucus: What to Watch For Tonight and My Predictions.
I love making predictions like this, it is just fun. Let me start by saying, I agree with the conventional wisdom that Romney, Santorum and Paul will finish 1, 2, and 3 in some order. I really won’t be surprised by any order for those three, I think there are just too many variables. Some of those variables include the total number of caucus goers, how many cross over voters will there be, and will Bachmann, Perry and to a degree Gingrich voter get behind Santorum to block Paul and Romney.
My predictions are based on the idea that the weather is good, turnout will be high and much of that will be due to crossover voters. Each of the candidates will receive votes from cross over caucus goers, but in total it helps Paul the most. Over the last two weeks, I’ve heard interviews from both Santorum and Bachmann bragging about all the Democrats who voted Obama who are planning to caucus for them; everyone is reaching out to disenfranchised Democrats (of which there are many to reach out to), so no one should cry foul after tonight if the cross over vote is high.
I also think that nobody likes voting for a loser. That logic has always annoyed me. In 2008 I often heard, “I like Paul and would vote for him, but he just can’t win, so I’m voting for X candidate who is higher in the polls”. As much as I dislike that logic, I think it will be a factor tonight as Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann supporters decide to support one of the leading 3 candidates. So they will probably do worse than their recent poll numbers predict. I think this helps Santorum more than anyone else.
So at last, my prediction:
I agree with Shane there will be three clear tickets out of Iowa: Paul, Santorum and Romney. Bachmann will drop out tonight or tomorrow morning. Perry and Gingrich will stay around for about 2-3 weeks, until after South Carolina. Huntsman will be out after New Hampshire.
If the Iowa winner does not become the eventual nominee many will continue to say that Iowa doesn’t pick winners. But what Iowa does and does well is vet the candidates and narrow the field. We will have vetted and eliminated Pawlenty, Cain, and likely Bachmann and will have dealt a near campaign ending blow to Perry and Gingrich. We may not pick the winner, but we will have determined the top three who move on.
He and his wife attended nursing school together before he started medical school.They plan on using their medical training to serve others.They have gone on several construction and medical trips to South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Peru, and most recently Afghanistan in 2009.
Dustin considers himself to be a “Christian Libertarian.” He is unapologetically, and absolutely 100% pro-life. Dustin credits Ron Paul's run in 2008 for revitalizing Dustin's interest in politics.He has recently been an activist for liberty in the Iowa City area.
He also ran for the Iowa House in 2010 as a Libertarian.It was a somewhat symbolic run, as no third party has ever been elected to the Iowa legislature, but it allowed him to discuss limited government solutions to our current problems as well as gave people another option, as the incumbent was running unopposed.
His career interests include medical ethics, critical care medicine and organ transplantation.He serves on the University of Iowa's ethics committee.
Latest posts by Dustin Krutsinger (see all)
- Liberty Alive and Well in Iowa - March 10, 2015
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- Speaking of Jesus by Medearis: FREE Kindle version today! - April 10, 2012