David Young and Brad Zaun are tied in the Caffeinated Thoughts poll of Iowa 3rd Congressional district delegates. No candidate reached the 35% threshold during the June 3rd primary, so the nominee must be chosen at convention according to Iowa law. The poll was conducted as an online, closed survey of Iowa 3rd District Delegates who will be nominating the Republican candidate in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District race next Saturday, June 21, 2014 in a special nominating convention. The poll was open from 6/9/14 through 6/13/14 through a link that was shared by email sent to delegates.
Caffeinated Thoughts received 118 responses. There will be 513 delegates seated. Most responses were made on 6/9 and 6/10.
David Young and Brad Zaun tie for first with 27%. Robert Cramer is third with 19%, Monte Shaw is 4th with 14%, Matt Schultz 5th with 8%, and Joe Grandanette is last with 1%. 3% of the delegates surveyed said they were undecided.
Caffeinated Thoughts also asked delegates who their second choice would be. 34% of the delegates who responded chose Young, 17% chose Zaun, Cramer and Schultz tied for 3rd with 14%, Monte Shaw was 5th with 10%, and Grandanette was last with 3%. 8% of those surveyed were undecided about their second choice.
I have to say I am surprised by David Young’s standing. While this is not conclusive as 100% of the delegates did not respond, and delegates can still change their mind, it does provide a snapshot of how delegates viewed the candidates after being courted the first week after the primary. It is unlikely any one candidate will receive the 50% (plus 1) needed to win on the first ballot next Saturday. Based on this poll and the results on primary night I would suspect that a nominee will not be chosen until the 3rd or 4th ballot unless a candidate drops out and backs another candidate. If that happens all bets are off.