Cruz and Rubio Rise, Bush Drops in Latest Iowa Caucus Poll

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has been largely absent in Iowa and it is showing up in the latest Quinnipiac poll.  Bush drops five points from the last poll they conducted in February.

Here are the results of the poll they conducted between 4/25/15 and 5/4/15 of 667 likely Iowa Republican Caucus goers that has a margin of error of +/-3.8%.

1. Scott Walker: 21%
2. (Tie) Rand Paul and Marco Rubio 13%
3. Ted Cruz: 12%
4. Mike Huckabee: 11%
5. Ben Carson: 7%
6. Jeb Bush: 5%
7. Chris Christie: 3%
8. Rick Perry: 3%
9. Carly Fiorina: 2%
10. John Kasich: 2%
11. Rick Santorum: 2%
12. Bobby Jindal: 1%
13. Lindsey Graham: 0%

Six percent of respondents were uncertain.

What happened to Bush?  U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) happened.  While Bush dropped, Rubio following his announcement in April has shot up in the polls.  He polled at 5% back in February.  He is now at 13%.  Walker has also gone down in the polls by 4%.  Cruz has also jumped up 7 points since February.  Carson has dropped by 4 points.  Santorum saw his support in the last Quinnipiac poll drop by half going from 4% in February to 2% in May.  Fiorina has seen a slight uptick not registering in the last poll now having 2%.  Paul’s and Huckabee’s support remained the same.

As with any poll taken this early it has to be taken with a grain of salt, but if I were in the Bush camp I wouldn’t be encouraged especially since he’s dropped to third in the Real Clear Politics average behind Walker and Rubio with 10.8%.  Bush also trails Walker in New Hampshire and only leads South Carolina by 1 point.

Some interesting observations… Walker and Cruz lead among those who identify as Tea Party with 26%.  Walker leads among evangelicals at 18%.  Huckabee is right behind with 17%, and Cruz is 3rd among evangelicals with 16%.  Among those who consider themselves “very conservative” Walker leads with 24% of the vote with Cruz following in 2nd place with 21%.

Rubio leads among those who would be Iowa Republicans’ second choice with 15%, Walker trails with 13% and Cruz has 10%.

For Bush the largest problem lies here – 1 in 4 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers say they would not caucus for Bush.  1 in 5 say they would not caucus for Christie.  It will be extremely difficult, especially with Walker and Rubio in the race, for Bush to overcome those numbers. Which likely explains his absence in Iowa.