Caffeinated Thoughts completed a non-scientific poll of our readership from May 1-8, 2015. U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) leads overall being first choice for just shy of 37% of those polled. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads among Iowan readers with almost 29% saying he is their first choice.
Our overall results (1st Choice):
1. U.S. Senator Rand Paul – 36.8%
2. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz – 19.6%
3. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum – 11.2%
4. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry – 8.0%
5. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – 5.2%
6. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio – 4.0%
7. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee – 3.6%
8. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker – 3.2%
9. Former Neurosurgeon Ben Carson – 2.8%
10. Real estate mogul Donald Trump – 2.0%
11. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush – 1.6%
12. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina – 0.8%
13. (Tie) New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, and Ohio Governor John Kasich – 0.0%
Only 0.4% of our readers were undecided.
Cruz was the top choice among those in Iowa.
1. Ted Cruz – 28.7%
2. Rick Perry – 16.6%
3. Rand Paul – 12.0%
4. Bobby Jindal – 9.3%
5. Marco Rubio – 6.4%
6. Mike Huckabee – 5.5%
7. Donald Trump – 4.6%
8. (Tie) Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum & Scott Walker – 3.7%
12. Carly Fiorina – 0.9%
13. (Tie) Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, and John Kasich – 0.0%
Most readers listed Paul, Walker and Cruz as their 2nd choice.
1. Rand Paul – 14.8%
2. Scott Walker – 13.2%
3. Ted Cruz – 12.4%
4. Rick Santorum – 8.8%
5. Bobby Jindal – 6.4%
6. Ben Carson – 6.0%
7. (Tie) Rick Perry and Marco Rubio – 5.6%
9. Mike Huckabee – 5.2%
10. Carly Fiorina – 3.2%
11. John Kasich – 1.6%
12. Donald Trump – 1.2%
13. Lindsey Graham – 0.8%
14. (Tie) Jeb Bush and Chris Christie – 0.4%
11.2% of respondents said they were undecided about who their second choice would be.
Our poll consisted of 250 participants who identified themselves as likely Republican primary/caucus voters.
Paul led among males with 44% (who consisted of 60.8% of those who responded to our poll). Paul edged out Cruz among female readers – 25.5% to 23.4%. Paul was the clear choice among those voting from outside of Iowa with 55.6% saying they stand with Rand. It should be noted that Paul surged among non-Iowans on the last day. As of midnight on 5/8/15 Paul was in 5th place overall with 7.3%.
Evangelicals/Born Again Christians made up the largest religious segment (which is is clearly our readership base) making up 51.6% of those polled. Paul also edged out Cruz among those identifying themselves as part of this group – 27.9% to 25.6%. Catholics were the 2nd largest religious group with 17.2%. Santorum led this group with 32.5%. Mainline Protestants were the 3rd largest group with 11.2%. Paul leads this group of readers with 32.1%.
Paul led among all age groups. In terms of political ideology, those who identified themselves as conservative (which again reflects the base of our readership) was the largest group with 65.2%. Cruz lead this group with 23.9% with Santorum in 2nd place with 16.6%. Libertarians were the 2nd largest group in terms of political ideology with 29.6%. Paul overwhelming lead this group with 85.1% of libertarians polled.
We would like to thank those who participated. We will complete another poll this fall leading up to the Iowa Caucus.