Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Burlington, Iowa. (Photo credit: Dave Davidson - Prezography.com)
Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Burlington, Iowa.
Photo credit: Dave Davidson (Prezography.com)
ADVERTISEMENT

Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Burlington, Iowa. (Photo credit: Dave Davidson - Prezography.com)
Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Burlington, Iowa.
Photo credit: Dave Davidson (Prezography.com)

The latest CNN/ORC International Iowa Caucus poll doesn’t pass the smell test.

They show Donald Trump with an 11 point lead:

1. Donald Trump 37%
2. Ted Cruz 26%
3. Marco Rubio 14%
4. Dr. Ben Carson 6%
5. (Tie) Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee 3%
7. Rand Paul 2%
8. (Tie) Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich & Rick Santorum 1%

This poll was conducted January 15 through January 20th. 266 likely Republican caucus goers were interviewed (n=266) and has a margin of error of ±6.0%.

Polls conducted during the same time frame:

The Monmouth College/KBUR AM poll was conducted on January 18 and 19th. 687 likely Republican caucus goers were interviewed (n=687) with a margin of error of ±3.7%. In this poll Cruz (27%) leads Trump (25%).  Carson (11%) is fourteen points back followed by Rubio (9%).

The Loras College poll was conducted January 13 through January 18th. 500 likely Republican caucus goers were interviewed (n=500) with margin of error of ±4.4%. Trump (26%) and Cruz (25%) are statistically tied in this poll.

The CNN/ORC International poll’s methodology is troubling along with having a very small sample size. The results are an outlier compared to other surveys released in this time frame and is the only poll during this time frame to show Trump above 26% support in Iowa. CNN/ORC uses a sample based upon Random Digit Dialing, which means they screen down from 2,002 adults to find 266 self-screened likely Republican caucus goers. This survey’s criteria for a likely caucus participant is based upon the stated response of the respondent and not tied to state voter registration files.  This loose definition of likely caucus participant benefits Trump. 

Nate Silver noted something else about the CNN/ORC poll:

Based on the other data at hand I don’t think the CNN/ORC poll is trustworthy. The race in Iowa is still extremely tight and will come down to who has the best organization to turn out voters to caucus.

Subscribe For Latest Updates

Sign up to receive stimulating conservative Christian commentary in your inbox.

Invalid email address
We promise not to spam you. You can unsubscribe at any time.
You May Also Like

Trump Calls for Exceptions to be Added to GOP Platform on Abortion

Donald Trump on the Today Show that he would add exceptions of incest, rape and the life of the mother to the Republican Party platform on abortion.

Michele Bachmann at Ames Straw Poll: Together We’ll Take The Country Back

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann said to the crowd at the Ames Straw…

Hinson Launches Fourth TV Ad in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District Race

Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for Congress in Iowa’s First District, released her fourth television ad titled “1-2 Punch.”