I hear a lot from supporters of Donald Trump that he is the only one who can beat Hillary Clinton. I’m not exactly sure what data they are relying upon to come across that assertion. Perhaps it is because they believe most independents will come his way. Perhaps they believe there will be a significant cross-over of Democrats.
That could be. But to say he’s the only one? The data we have suggests otherwise. In fact with recent head to head polling Donald Trump is the only candidate who loses to Hillary Clinton.
Granted these are polls that Trump will never cite so we’ll have to forgive Trump supporters not being aware of them.
According to Real Clear Politics Clinton currently has +3.0% average lead over Trump 46.5% to 43.5%. CNN/ORC gives Clinton, the most recent poll, gives Clinton an 8 point advantage – 52% to 44%. The Fox News poll gives her a 5 point advantage – 47% to 42%. USA Today/Suffolk taken on 2/11-2/15 gives Trump a 2 point advantage – 45% to 43%, but the Quinnipiac Poll taken during that same time period gives Clinton a one point lead.
In fact the CNN/ORC national poll that Trump supporters like to share that shows Trump with a 33% lead over his GOP rivals 35% of Republicans said they would “definitely not support him.” If that number bears out Trump is in trouble in the general election.
If you look further back you’ll see Clinton consistently holds a lead over Trump in polling. Granted things can change when the candidates are nominated it still blows a hole in the Trump supporter narrative.
Comparatively U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) holds a slim 1.5% average lead over Clinton according to Real Clear Politics. He leads Clinton 49% to 48% in the CNN/ORC poll. He leads 46% to 45% in the Fox News poll. He leads Clinton 46% to 43% in the Quinnipiac poll and 45% to 44% in the USA Today/Suffolk poll.
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) leads Clinton by an average of three points according to Real Clear Politics. In the CNN/ORC poll he leads 50% to 47%. He has a four point lead in the Fox News poll, a seven point lead with the Quinnipiac poll, and a six point lead in the USA Today/Suffolk poll.
In fact when it comes to electability in the general election race Ohio Governor John Kasich has bragging rights. He wasn’t included in the latest CNN/ORC polling, but he has a 7.4 point average advantage over Clinton according to Real Clear Politics. In fact with the USA Today/Suffolk poll taken mid-February Kasich had an 11 point lead over Clinton.
Trump supporters are entitled to their opinion, but in order for it to be credible it should be backed up with facts.
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