I don’t think the electoral map looks very good for Donald Trump – at this time. He should see a bump this week in the polls coming out of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Hillary Clinton will then see a bump after the Democratic National Convention next week in Philadelphia. This is likely going to be a tighter race among the popular vote based on the polling we’ve seen. The electoral college could be a different story. (Here is a refresher on the electoral college if you need.)
Here is what the map looks like according to Real Clear Politics.
The dark red is “likely Trump” and the light red is “leans Trump.” The dark blue is “likely Clinton” and the light blue is “leans Clinton.” The gray states are toss-up states. If polls are accurate then Clinton would have 209 electors to Trump’s 164. There are 165 electors up for grabs in toss-up states. It takes 270 electors to win.
Based on current polling this is what the map could look like, and I think this represents a worst case scenario (blue representing Clinton, red representing Trump).
So if this is what the map looks like on election night it would mean Clinton would have 357 electors to Trump’s 181. That is the worse case scenario I believe. Arizona right now is a toss-up with Hillary Clinton having a slight edge. In head to head polling in Florida, Clinton edges out Trump, but if you look at a four-way race with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein then Trump edges Clinton out. Four way polling in Iowa in the last three polls shows a tight race. In head to head polling in Iowa is also very close. In Ohio, a head to head polling shows a tight race, but 4-way polling gives Clinton an edge. A four-way poll in New Hampshire taken this month shows the race tied between Trump and Clinton. Nevada is certainly possible to flip even though the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Nevada was in 2004 when President George W. Bush won in his re-election bid.
If all those states flip to Trump he still loses to Clinton 255 to 283.
For Trump to win he would have to win all of these states and flip either North Carolina or Pennsylvania. It’s not impossible, but it is a tall order. Clinton’s unpopularity and potential scandals (investigation into charges that she perjured herself before Congress and Clinton Foundation) could tank her polling. We, however, don’t know what will come out of the Trump University lawsuit and what bombshells may fall with Donald Trump as well.
As of right now, however, the electoral map does not look good for Trump. We’ll keep an eye on state polling to see what changes down the road.