I don’t think the electoral map looks very good for Donald Trump – at this time. He should see a bump this week in the polls coming out of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Hillary Clinton will then see a bump after the Democratic National Convention next week in Philadelphia. This is likely going to be a tighter race among the popular vote based on the polling we’ve seen. The electoral college could be a different story. (Here is a refresher on the electoral college if you need.)

Here is what the map looks like according to Real Clear Politics.

Screenshot 2016-07-22 18.01.28

The dark red is “likely Trump” and the light red is “leans Trump.” The dark blue is “likely Clinton” and the light blue is “leans Clinton.” The gray states are toss-up states. If polls are accurate then Clinton would have 209 electors to Trump’s 164. There are 165 electors up for grabs in toss-up states. It takes 270 electors to win.

Based on current polling this is what the map could look like, and I think this represents a worst case scenario (blue representing Clinton, red representing Trump).

Screenshot 2016-07-22 18.40.17

So if this is what the map looks like on election night it would mean Clinton would have 357 electors to Trump’s 181. That is the worse case scenario I believe. Arizona right now is a toss-up with Hillary Clinton having a slight edge. In head to head polling in Florida, Clinton edges out Trump, but if you look at a four-way race with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein then Trump edges Clinton out. Four way polling in Iowa in the last three polls shows a tight race. In head to head polling in Iowa is also very close. In Ohio, a head to head polling shows a tight race, but 4-way polling gives Clinton an edge. A four-way poll in New Hampshire taken this month shows the race tied between Trump and Clinton. Nevada is certainly possible to flip even though the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Nevada was in 2004 when President George W. Bush won in his re-election bid.

If all those states flip to Trump he still loses to Clinton 255 to 283.

Screenshot 2016-07-22 19.09.13

For Trump to win he would have to win all of these states and flip either North Carolina or Pennsylvania. It’s not impossible, but it is a tall order. Clinton’s unpopularity and potential scandals (investigation into charges that she perjured herself before Congress and Clinton Foundation) could tank her polling. We, however, don’t know what will come out of the Trump University lawsuit and what bombshells may fall with Donald Trump as well.

As of right now, however, the electoral map does not look good for Trump. We’ll keep an eye on state polling to see what changes down the road.

10 comments
  1. With the end of the primaries, without the National Popular Vote bill in effect, the political relevance of three-quarters of all Americans is now finished for the presidential election.

    Because of state-by-state winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution. . .

    In the 2012 general election campaign

    38 states had no campaign events, and minuscule or no spending for TV ads.

    More than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested on voters in just the only ten competitive states..

    Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa).

    Issues of importance to non-battleground states are of so little interest to presidential candidates that they don’t even bother to poll them individually.

    Over 87% of both Romney and Obama campaign offices were in just the then 12 swing states. The few campaign offices in the 38 remaining states were for fund-raising, volunteer phone calls, and arranging travel to battleground states.

    The political reality is that campaign strategies in ordinary elections are based on trying to change a reasonably achievable small percentage of the votes—1%, 2%, or 3%. The only 12 states that received any attention in the 2012 general election campaign for President were states where the outcome was between 45% and 51% Republican — that is, within 3 percentage points of Romney’s eventual nationwide percentage of 48%. .

    Since World War II, a shift of a few thousand votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 15 presidential elections

    Policies important to the citizens of non-battleground states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

    “Battleground” states receive 7% more federal grants than “spectator” states, twice as many presidential disaster declarations, more Superfund enforcement exemptions, and more No Child Left Behind law exemptions.

    Compare the response to hurricane Katrina (in Louisiana, a “safe” state) to the federal response to hurricanes in Florida (a “swing” state) under Presidents of both parties. President Obama took more interest in the BP oil spill, once it reached Florida’s shores, after it had first reached Louisiana. Some pandering policy examples include ethanol subsidies, steel tariffs, and Medicare Part D. Policies not given priority, include those most important to non-battleground states – like water issues in the west.

      1. The National Popular Vote bill does not eliminate the Electoral College.

        By changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes, the National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

        Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states (where the two major political parties happen to have similar levels of support among voters) where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 38+ predictable states that have just been ‘spectators’ and ignored after the conventions.

        The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
        All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.

        The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

        NationalPopularVote

      2. In 2012, 24 of the nation’s 27 smallest states received no attention at all from presidential campaigns after the conventions. They were ignored despite their supposed numerical advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the 8.6 million eligible voters in Ohio received more campaign ads and campaign visits from the major party campaigns than the 42 million eligible voters in those 27 smallest states combined.

        The 12 smallest states are totally ignored in presidential elections. These states are not ignored because they are small, but because they are not closely divided “battleground” states.

        Now with state-by-state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), presidential elections ignore 12 of the 13 lowest population states (3-4 electoral votes), that are non-competitive in presidential elections. 6 regularly vote Republican (AK, ID, MT, WY, ND, and SD), and 6 regularly vote Democratic (RI, DE, HI, VT, ME, and DC) in presidential elections.

        Similarly, the 25 smallest states have been almost equally noncompetitive. They voted Republican or Democratic 12-13 in 2008 and 2012.

        Voters in states, of all sizes, that are reliably red or blue don’t matter. Candidates ignore those states and the issues they care about most.

        Support for a national popular vote is strong in every smallest state surveyed in recent polls among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group

        Among the 13 lowest population states, the National Popular Vote bill has passed in 9 state legislative chambers, and been enacted by 4 jurisdictions.

      3. It ensures that every voter is equal, every voter will matter, in every state, in every presidential election, and the candidate with the most votes wins, as in virtually every other election in the country.

        Under National Popular Vote, every voter, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. Every vote would matter in the state counts and national count.

        In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided).

        Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in every state surveyed recently. In the 41 red, blue, and purple states surveyed, overall support has been in the 67-81% range – in rural states, in small states, in Southern and border states, in big states, and in other states polled.

        Most Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

    1. See the latest michael Moore article in the Huffington post.

      All trump needs is to carry OH, MI, PA and WI.

      And his message resonates with those voters.

  2. All Trump needs to do is get a close second on the popular vote for him to decry the process as crooked and that he was “shafted”. His rabid followers will eat it up. He would need to be beat with a large majority in the popular vote to really settle things in this country. No matter what happens though he’ll be making out like a bandit.

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