Currently the Real Clear Politics electoral map reflecting state polls shows that Hillary Clinton has a 260 to 165 lead over Donald Trump. You can see what the current map looks like below:

screenshot-2016-10-13-14-30-42

The darker blue or red the more likely a state is for Clinton (blue) or Trump (red). The lighter the color the closer the polls are. Gray states are toss-ups.

The last time I wrote about the electoral college map Clinton’s lead was down to 200 to 165. Trump of late has not really shifted. His states have pretty much stayed the same. Clinton however has picked up a lead in some states in October to move them out of the toss-up category. Polling this month in Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado has moved those states from the toss-up column to the “leans Clinton” column.

Also Trump is has seen some negative movement in states he currently leads. Utah moved from “likely Trump to “leans Trump” not something a Republican candidate ever wants to see in that state. Alaska has moved from “safe Trump” to “likely Trump.”  Tennessee has also been downgraded in October from “safe Trump” to “likely Trump” of those states Utah is most at risk which I discussed with yesterday’s surprise poll.  Also since the last time I wrote about this Trump was polling well in Ohio and Florida. That’s not the case anymore. They are both still toss-up states, but Clinton still holds a slight lead in both states.

If the election were to be held today it would be an electoral landslide with Clinton winning 340 and Trump winning 198.. possibly 192 if Evan McMullin pulls off an upset in Utah which he looks poised to do with Trump’s current trajectory.

screenshot-2016-10-13-14-53-37

3 comments
    1. It’s polling. Right now Clinton only has a 4.3 percent lead over Trump (RCP average). The latest Gravis poll has them tied at 43 percent (I’m actually surprised 3rd party candidates are not fairing better). So Real Clear Politics really didn’t have a choice but to label it a swing state for now. All of the polling took place before the debates and the Trump video so I’m sure it’ll change.

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