Last week I said that FBI Director James Comey gave Donald Trump a great gift when he announced that the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails was being reopened. The legal consequences are up in the air because we really don’t know what they will reveal.
The political consequences however are evident in the short term. It appears to have given Trump some momentum with one week to go before Election Day.
A new ABC/Washington Post tracking poll shows a five point swing since last week with Trump now leading Clinton by one point.
Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.
While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump — a first since May — in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.
Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.
Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an after-effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.
The IBD/TIPP tracking poll shows no change with Clinton hold the one point lead that she had last week. Rasmussen (whose polling has been questionable to me of late) shows Trump gained a point since last week. Clinton led by one point last week, and now they are tied.
The electoral map still doesn’t look good for Trump with Clinton holding a 263 to 164 advantage based on state polling. There hasn’t been much change on the map with the exception of Colorado being switched from leans Clinton to a toss-up. The last poll shows Clinton with just a one point lead.
If the election were held today, based on state polling averages this is what the map looks like when you factor in what swing state polling shows.
This is what Trump has to overcome. Right now if the state polling is true (and yes Trump says it is rigged – unless if favors him) and fairly current (some states don’t get polled that often) Clinton wins the electoral college 305 to 233. With Evan McMullin in a position to win Utah it could be even worse.
Also – early voting. Early voting has started in many states, and it is reported that 22 million have already voted. This could mitigate a November surprise somewhat.
So does Trump have momentum? Based on one poll it would seem so, but it may not be enough to carry him to election day. I have learned with Trump to never say never however and bad news for Clinton is what he needs to put him over the top. If another bombshell drops all bets may be off.
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