Welcome to my live blog of Election Day 2016. I will be updating throughout the late afternoon and evening. Look for the latest update at the top of the page. The map below will also be updated as results come in. You’ll need to refresh your browser to see updates.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

2:33a – Last update – Trump was projected to win Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. We’ll follow up on tonight’s historic election tomorrow.

Current popular vote count:

  1. Donald Trump – 47.9% (57,693,737 votes)
  2. Hillary Clinton – 47.3% (56,992,345 votes)

1:33a – Trump wins Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

1:15a – Well this was poor form.

1:05a – Maine was called for Hillary Clinton, but I’m not so sure about Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Trump is actually leading there with 83% of precincts reporting in.  So for now we’ll give her three electoral votes.

12:49a – Trump is projected to win Pennsylvania. Hello President Trump, not totally official yet, but by my count he has surpassed 270. He also won Alaska. I also placed Michigan back in the not called column.

12:41a – No seats were flipped in the Iowa House. Republicans will maintain their 53 to 47 majority.

12:31a – The Louisiana U.S. Senate race will require a run-off. U.S. Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) won reelection, and U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (I-AK) currently leads her race.

12:26a – U.S. Senator Pat Toomey hangs on to win reelection. It looks pretty certain that Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate, and may only end up losing one seat tonight. U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) is currently leading, but it is very close.

12:17a – U.S. Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) overwhelmingly won reelection. No surprise there.

Plus, I have to agree with Frank Luntz.

11:59p – With 98% of precincts reporting Trump leads Clinton in Pennsylvania by 48,695 votes. He could end up winning this. In Michigan with 82% of precincts reporting he is ahead 57,479 votes. There are still a lot of precincts left to count in Wayne County (Detroit) and Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). I have a feeling the Detroit Free Press may reject projecting Hillary Clinton the winner as early as they did.

11:52p – A Republican won the Vermont Governor’s race. Seriously? He must be a Democrat and the Democrat a Communist for this to happen. Sadly it doesn’t look like North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) will hold on. With 99.85% reporting he trails by 2,557 votes.

11:33p – Congressman Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa) wins reelection in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District.

11:29p – Clinton is projected to win Nevada.

11:26p – Congressman Rod Blum (R-Iowa) is projected to win reelection over Monica Vernon in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.

11:21p – Trump is currently leading Clinton in Pennsylvania by just over 2400 votes  with 96% of precincts reporting in. If he wins that state, he wins – he’ll hit 275 at that point.

11:18p – Trump has to win Arizona and New Hampshire or Nevada to reach or surpass 270.

10:58p – Republicans will win control of the Iowa Senate.  Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D-Council Bluffs) lost his race to Dan Dawson in Senate District 8. It also looks like Republicans will flip Senate District 44 as Thomas Greene is leading State Senator Thomas Courtney (D-Burlington) by over 1000 votes with one precinct left to go. Mark Lofgren is also leading State Senator Chris Brase (D-Muscatine), but there is some more counting yet to do.

10:53p – Eric Greitens who had some of the coolest campaign commercials flips the Missouri Governor’s office to the GOP.

10:49p – Georgia has been called for Trump.

10:44p – Congressman Steve King (R-Iowa) won reelection in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District.

10:35p – Trump is projected to win Iowa and Wisconsin.

10:28p – Congressman David Young (R-Iowa) is projected to win reelection in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) also wins a hotly contested Senate race in Wisconsin.

10:22p – Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii were called for Clinton, Utah for Trump. Clinton leads Electoral College by 1 vote.

10:12p – Looks to be on his way to flip Wisconsin. With 64% of precincts reporting in he leads Hillary Clinton by almost 50,000 votes.

screenshot-2016-11-08-22-11-54

10:08p – Clinton is projected to win California, Trump is projected to win Idaho.

9:58p – With 172 of 391 precincts reporting Congressman David Young (R-IA) leads Jim Mower in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District by approx. 2750 votes.

9:55p – Trump is projected now (finally) to win Florida, now has 213 electoral votes.

9:48p – Trump is projected to win North Carolina.

9:44p – U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has won reelection.

9:38p – The Detroit Free Press has projected Hillary Clinton will win Michigan. That’s probably right even though Donald Trump leads right now. Detroit still needs to count about 75% of their precincts. Ann Arbor, Flint… That will catch any lead Trump has.

9:26p – Ohio has now been called for Trump. Colorado has been called for Clinton.

9:23p – 99% of precincts counted in Florida. Trump leads by 135K+. Why hasn’t been called? Absentee ballots?

9:2op – Republicans hold Governor’s seats in Indiana, North Dakota, and Utah. Democrats hold seats in Delaware and West Virginia.

9:16p – Democrats flip another House seat in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District. They have whittled down the Republican majority by two seats.

9:10p – Trump still leads Ohio by 11.2% after 60% of the precincts have been counted. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) still has almost 1/2 of their precincts to report, Franklin County (Columbus) is in the same boat. About 2/3 of the precincts in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) still needs to be counted so this race is going to tighten more than this, but the Trump campaign has reason to feel good about Ohio.

9:06p – Montana was called for Trump, Virginia for Clinton.

8:58p – U.S. Senators John McCain (R-AZ), John Boozeman (R-AR), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Jerry Moran (R-KS), and John Thune win reelection.

8:57p – U.S. Senator John Hoeven wins reelection in the North Dakota U.S. Senate race.

8:50p – New Mexico has been called for Clinton.

8:45p – With 45% reporting Trump is beating up Hillary Clinton, but that will tighten up Atlanta Metro still has most of its votes to count. I still think Georgia will be Trump’s to lose. If he doesn’t win there I would be surprised.

8:43p – With 94% reporting in Florida I don’t see Hillary Clinton overcoming Trump’s 141,000 lead.

8:33p – Louisiana was called for Trump, Connecticut for Clinton.

8:24p – Trump leads in Michigan with 10% in, but most of that county is the UP, Northern Michigan and Western Michigan. Lots of votes in Eastern Michigan yet. So don’t get excited yet.

8:21p – With 84% of the vote counted, Trump leads by 2.7% in Virginia. Watch Northern Virginia (Beltway) & Richmond that still has a few votes to be counted to see if Clinton can catch up.  Trump holds onto a slim lead in North Carolina with 38% counted. Can Trump sweep the South?

8:17p – With 37% of the vote counted Trump has opened up a 6 point lead in Ohio.

8:15p – GOP pick up FL02, FL18, Dems pick up  FL 07 and FL 13 (along with FL 10 earlier).

8:08p – Lots of states called: For Trump: Arkansas, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wyoming. New York has been called for Clinton.

7:56p – With 22% of the vote in Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 1.1% – 49.3% to 48.2% – in North Carolina.

7:52p – With 74% reporting in Trump leads Clinton by about 113,000 votes. Miami-Dade still has about 80 precincts to go… Still watching that county and Broward (Ft. Lauderdale) and Palm Beach counties…. I’m thinking now Clinton may not be able to catch up.

7:43p – Clinton has an early lead in Ohio with 22% reporting. She has big leads in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) Counties.

7:40p – U.S. Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) wins reelection.

7:38p – Republican Todd Young defeats former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) in Indiana’s U.S. Senate race.

7:33p – Trump is currently ahead in Florida 48.8% to 48.1% over Hillary Clinton with 68% reporting. There are a lot of votes in South Florida to be counted yet.

7:30p – Alabama has been called for Donald Trump.

7:25p – U.S. Senators Rob Portman (R-OH),  James Lankford (R-OK) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) win reelection. Democrats hold U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.

7:23p – Our first incumbent U.S. Senator was knocked off. Democrats flip their first seat. Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) defeats U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL).

7:20p – Trump retakes lead in Florida with 60% reporting in.

7:17p – Illinois and Rhode Island have been called for Clinton.

7:15p – Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi were called for Trump, DC for Clinton… no surprises thus far.

7:12p – Oklahoma was called for Donald Trump.

7:10p – U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has been projected to win re-election.

7:08p – Hillary Clinton opens up a big lead in Miami-Dade, Orange and Hillsbourough Counties in Florida. Not looking good for Trump.

7:05p – Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware have been called for Clinton.

6:57p – Democrats pick up a House seat in Florida’s 10th Congressional District. Democrat candidate Val Demings is projected to have have beaten Republican Thuy Lowe. Congressman Daniel Webster (R-FL) was redistricted to Florida’s 11th Congressional District where he won tonight.

6:56p – Posted the last update too soon. South Carolina has been called for Trump. No surprise there.

6:50p – Hillary Clinton with an early lead in South Carolina with 0.2% reporting.

screenshot-2016-11-08-18-49-58

6:46p – Monroe County is sort of a bellwether county in Florida. With 23 out of 33 precincts reporting in Trump leads by 6 points.

6:36p – 4.1% reported and Trump takes the lead in Florida again.

screenshot-2016-11-08-18-36-42

6:35p – West Virginia has been called for Trump.

6:30p – 0.6% reporting in Florida, Hillary Clinton takes lead.

screenshot-2016-11-08-18-30-02

6:27p – 2.1% reporting, Trump with an early lead in Virginia.

screenshot-2016-11-08-18-27-11

6:21p – Republicans hold Congressional seats in Florida 4 and 11. Neither party has flipped a seat yet.

6:19p – U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) win their reelection.

6:17p – Votes coming in Florida, Donald Trump has an early lead.

6:13p – GOP hold Congressional seats in GA 1, 9, 10, and 14, as well as, KY 2, 4 and 5.

6:10p – U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is projected to win reelection.

6:06p – Polls are now closed in New Hampshire, Vermont, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. Indiana and Kentucky have been called for Donald Trump, Vermont has been called for Hillary Clinton.

5:51p – Correction: Polls are not closed in New Hampshire yet. They close at 7:00p (EST) so pretty soon. Polls are closed in the parts of Indiana and Kentucky that are under Eastern Standard Time.

5:40p – Gleenings from ABC News exit polling:

  • 18% of voters in Florida are Hispanic and non-whites make up 39% of those who voted. This would be a new record in Florida.
  • The evangelical vote in Florida appears to have dropped this year – 20%, they made up 24% in 2008 and 2012. Granted voting is not done, but that would be significant.
  • In North Carolina 30% of voters are non-white. Non-college educated whites are at 32% which is 5% less than 2012. These numbers do not bode well for Trump.
  • Democrats lead early turnout numbers in North Carolina by 8%. Polls close at 7:30p (EST). This would be the lowest turnout for Republicans since 1984.
  • Non-college educated whites make up 42% of voting electorate in Ohio and lead college-educated whites by four points. They led by wider margins in previous years.

5:33p – Fox News exit polling shows a majority of voters disturbed by candidate scandals. Also, Gary Johnson is a favorite among late deciders.

5:31p – Voting is done in New Hampshire, Indiana and Kentucky.

5:09p – Took a break to go vote.

So my ballot looked like this for Pleasant Hill 1:

President – Evan McMullin

U.S. Senator – Chuck Grassley

U.S. House – David Young

Iowa Senate District 16: Christopher Whiteing – Libertarian candidate (Character counts at the State Senate level as well)

Iowa House District 31: Joe Gleason – Libertarian candidate (I actually know him, I didn’t know the Republican candidate)

Polk County Sheriff – Dan Charleston

Judicial Retentions – No on all of the judges except one, Supreme Court on principle the rest because I don’t believe anyone needs a position for life (I figure their positions are safe anyway). I did vote yes on Judge Odell McGhee because I’ve been in his court room when I worked with juvenile offenders and he’s a good guy.

4:24p – Oops.

4:18p – It’s over, Guam went for Clinton. Apparently how Guam has gone in the past is how the election has gone. A reminder that while citizens in Guam get to vote it is the Electoral College who decides and Guam is not a part of that.

4:16p – Should Donald Trump lose tonight I can totally see him trying to sue in Pennsylvania. See even the voting machines were rigged!

4:10p – A majority of voters believe that Donald Trump (81%) and Hillary Clinton (60%) are stubborn. Gee, that’s a surprising result.

4:01p – Just a reminder that exit polling often changes throughout the day.

3:58p – Trump loses first legal challenge in Nevada, contesting how polls are closed.

3:52p – Some early batches of exit polls shows that Clinton’s ground game has surpassed Trump’s. This isn’t surprising. Another exit polls shows that Americans are looking for a strong leader. We just don’t know who they see as that leader yet. I suspect it bodes well for Trump as that has been a big part of his messaging.

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