When Fred Hubbell announced his candidacy for Governor of Iowa back in July I wrote, “Hubbell’s ability to self-finance a campaign and his name recognition make him a formidable candidate both in the Democratic primary and, should he win, the general election.”
From what I’ve seen he is not the favorite among activists in the Iowa Democratic Party. State Senator Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) and union boss Cathy Glasson have that distinction. Based on my inbox it seems those are the two candidates who have received the most attention from the Republican Governor’s Association and Republican Party of Iowa. Hubbel has not been ignored, but he doesn’t seem to be the focus.
He should be.
A Remington Research Group poll of 2,315 likely Democratic primary voters commissioned by KBUR AM/FM Radio out of Burlington conducted on May 5-6 shows that Hubbell has a widening lead among Democratic candidates. Not only that, but he is well past the 35 percent threshold required by Iowa law to prevent a special nominating convention.
No one is even close and Boulton is the only other candidate to break 10 percent.
- Fred Hubbell: 46%
- Nate Boulton: 20%
- Cathy Glasson: 7%
- John Norris: 5%
- Andy McGuire: 3%
- Ross Wilburn: 1%
Hubbell leads among those who are 50 and older. Boulton, according to the poll, leads among voters ages 30-39. Hubbell maintains strong leads in all four Iowa congressional districts and there is little variation by gender or among progressives and moderates.
Remington Research Group is a Republican firm based out of Kansas City, MO. The survey was weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2018 Democratic Primary Election. The poll’s margin of error is +/-2.04% with a 95% level of confidence.
In a six-way primary, it would not be unexpected to see this go to a special nominating convention and there Boulton or Glasson would likely have an advantage. The larger primary electorate is broader than the activist base so here is where name recognition and money play a more significant role, and Hubbell has the advantage.
An analysis by Iowa Starting Line shows that Hubbell has outspent Boulton on TV ads by a five to one margin. He has spent nine times more money on ads than Glasson.
With the primary less than a month away, Hubbell is the candidate Republicans should place their focus.