Photo credit: Tom Arthur (CC-By-SA 2.0)
Photo credit: Tom Arthur (CC-By-SA 2.0)

ABC News and The Washington Post released a poll that shows Democrats are ahead of Republicans in generic polling 53 percent to 43 percent nationally, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved to 41 percent up from 36 percent.

Both suggest an improvement, but it’s nothing to get excited about come November 6th. Langer Research (the group who conducted the poll) shared the numbers that really matter:

The Democrats, to be sure, also can find grounds to worry. Their support is strongest among minorities and young adults, groups that tend to have lower turnout in midterm elections. It’s also focused in urban areas, where the Democrats generally already control House seats; specifically, registered voters favor Democratic candidates by 63-31 percent in cities, vs. an essentially even 49-46 percent in suburbs and 44-53 percent in rural areas.

That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race. (Emphasis mine)

The “blue wave” won’t mean much if it is confined to districts they already hold. A couple of caveats: first, this is generic polling, and, second, it is well within the margin of error. That said, Republicans eking out victories in these key battleground races and maintain control of the House is a real possibility.

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