The last two polls in Iowa’s Gubernatorial Race released over the weekend show that tomorrow’s election between Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and her Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell is a toss-up. The Real Clear Politics average of polls gives Hubbell a slight 0.7 percent lead.

Reynolds leads the Emerson College Poll

Emerson College’s poll of 1,462 likely voters in Iowa conducted on October 29 through November 1 shows Reynolds with almost a 4 point lead over Hubbell.

  1. Reynolds – 48.9 percent
  2. Hubbell – 45.0 percent

1.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else while 4.5 percent said they were undecided. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. 

51 percent of respondents to the Emerson Poll are female with 49 percent being male. The party breakdown of respondents tracks with statewide voter registration numbers: 31.2 percent identified as Republican, 30.5 percent identified as Democrat, and 38.3 percent identified as independent/other. 

Hubbell Leads The Des Moines Register‘s Iowa Poll

The final Iowa Poll conducted by The Des Moines Register and Mediacom gives Hubbell a 2 point lead. 

  1. Hubbell – 46 percent
  2. Reynolds – 44 percent
  3. Jake Porter (Libertarian) – 2 percent

Eight percent of respondents either refused to answer or say if they were going to vote for someone else. 

The Des Moines Register and Mediacom polled 801 likely Iowa voters from October 30 to November 2. This poll has a +/- 3.5 percent margin of error.

This poll shows both Reynolds and Hubbell picked up an additional three points each from the last poll. Porter declined by five points. 

J. Ann Seltzer, whose company conducted the poll on behalf of The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, said there is an underlying support for Reynolds present in the poll.

A two-point lead is small under any circumstances, Selzer said, but adding to the closeness of the race “is an underlying support for Reynolds, even though she is trailing at this point.”

Reynolds leads across six of seven leadership traits for which the poll tested.

A plurality of likely voters say they believe Reynolds would be a stronger leader, better manage the state budget, be more honest, better reflect Iowa values, have a better understanding of the issues and be a better role model. Some of the margins are small, ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points.

Hubbell leads in only one category, by 4 points: better at working across party lines

The Iowa Poll has not revealed the demographical breakdown of their poll which I’ve always had an issue with in terms of transperancy. 

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