From Left: Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders

DES MOINES, Iowa – The latest poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers released on Tuesday shows South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg now leads the Democratic presidential field less than three months from the Iowa Caucus on Monday, February 3, 2020.

Monmouth University polled 451 likely caucus goers between November 7-11, 2020 with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percent. They found:

  1. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg – 22 percent (+14 since August)
  2. Former Vice President Joe Biden – 19 percent (-7)
  3. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts – 18 percent (-2)
  4. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – 13 percent (+5)

No other candidate broke double digits, and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota trailed in 5th place with 5 percent. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are tied at 3 percent, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii polled at 2 percent. Seven additional candidates polled with less than one percent.

Monmouth University pollsters found that Buttigieg gained ground in every demographic group since August. He is tied with Biden among moderates at 26 percent and those who consider themselves somewhat liberal at 23 percent. He leads among men (20 percent) and women (24 percent).

“Buttigieg is emerging as a top pick for a wide variety of Iowa Democrats. While he has made nominally bigger gains among older caucusgoers, you really can’t pigeonhole his support to one particular group. He is doing well with voters regardless of education or ideology,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.

Buttigieg was the second choice among likely caucus goers at 15 percent trailing only Warren who had 17 percent say she was their second choice.

Buttigieg also has the highest favorable-unfavorable net rating of +63. Warren followed at +46 seeing a 16 point drop since August. Biden was third at +39 with a 13 point drop, and Sanders has a +36 rating gaining 7 points since August.

Here is the key takeaway from this poll: Only 28 percent of caucus goers are firmly decided. Of those who said they were open to supporting a different candidate 16 percent said there was a high possibility they would do so and 37 percent said it was a moderate possibility.

Caffeinated Thoughts reported last week that Buttigieg had momentum and the race in Iowa was now a four-way contest between Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders, and Warren. He has seen large groups at different stops in Iowa.

Winning Iowa is a possibility for Buttigieg and the momentum could be coming at the right time.

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