Biden Rises, Buttigieg Declines in Iowa

There has been a shift among Iowa Democrats with less than two weeks before the Iowa Caucus. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s poll numbers rose in the last two polls in Iowa, and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has declined in the last three polls. Also notable, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., broke double digits in the last poll in Iowa.

The Latest Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll conducted by The Des Moines Register and CNN showed a tight four way race with the top four within five points of one another. Their poll was conducted between January 2-8, 2020, included 701 likely Democratic caucus goers, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

Here are the results for the top five:

1. Bernie Sanders – 20 percent (+5 since November)
2. Elizabeth Warren – 17 percent (+1)
3. Pete Buttigieg – 16 percent (-9)
4. Joe Biden – 15 percent (no change)
5. Amy Klobuchar – 6 percent (no change)

This was the first Iowa Poll that Sanders has led.

Of those polled, 45 percent said they could still be persuaded while only 40 percent said their mind was made up. Only 13 percent were undecided.

The Des Moines Register/CNN poll found among Buttigieg’s supporters only 40 percent said their support was set, the lowest among the top-tier candidates compared to Sanders at 59 percent, Warrant at 48 percent, and Biden at 44 percent.

Their poll did not indicate what demographic Buttigieg took a hit in and which Sanders has risen. They did note that Buttigieg still had the widest swath of voters who were interested in him with 60 percent saying he was their first choice, second choice, or a candidate they were actively considering. Warren followed at 59 percent with Biden and Sanders coming in at 55 percent.

The Latest Monmouth University Poll

Monmouth University showed an increase for Biden in their latest poll, but echoed The Des Moines Register‘s poll also showing a decline for Buttigieg. The Monmouth University poll was conducted January 9-12, 2020 among 405 likely Democratic caucus goers and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Here are the results for the top five for that poll:

1. Biden – 24 percent (+5 since November)
2. Sanders – 18 percent (+5)
3. Buttigieg – 17 percent (-5)
4. Warren – 15 percent (-3)
5. Klobuchar – 8 percent (+3)

The key in the Monmouth University poll for Biden are voters 65-years-old or older with 44 percent backing him now compared to 29 percent in November. Buttigieg saw a decline among that demographic with 26 percent backing him in November and only 11 percent of older Democrats backing him in January. Klobuchar has also seen growing support from this demographic with 13 percent saying they support her up eight percent from November.

Also noteworthy in this poll are 43 percent of likely caucus goers who said they are firmly decided on their candidate up 28 percent who said the same in November. Also, four in ten likely caucus goers said there is a moderate chance they could change their mind before February 3, 2020.

The Focus on Rural America Poll

The Focus on Rural America (FRA) poll conducted by David Binder is the only poll conducted after the last Democratic debate in Des Moines, Iowa. They polled 500 likely Democratic caucus goers from January 15-18, 2020. The last time they polled was last September so this poll isn’t helpful to measure movement over the last two months. Their margin of error is +/-4.4 percent. This is the first poll that shows Klobuchar break double digits.

The top five results of this poll are:

1. Biden – 24 percent
2. Warren – 18 percent
3. Buttigieg – 16 percent
4. Sanders – 14 percent
5. Klobuchar – 11 percent

The FRA poll asked Iowa Democrats if there was a candidate they would consider as a result of the last debate. Of those polled 16 percent said they would consider Biden as a result of the debate, 11 percent said Klobuchar, 10 percent said Warren, 9 percent said Buttigieg, and 6 percent said Sanders.

They also asked if there were a candidate they would not support as a result of the debate. Warren and Sanders lost more supporters than they potentially gained with 12 percent and 11 percent respectfully saying they would not support either candidate as a result of the debate.

Second choice?

Also important to note is where likely caucus goers who are currently planning on supporting if their candidate is not viable in their precinct caucus (15 percent). According to new rules, those who have selected a viable candidate can not choose a different candidate after the first round. The FRA poll found Biden leads among those currently not supporting a viable candidate (less than 15 percent in the poll) who said they will select a second choice at 24 percent. Buttigieg follows Biden at 21 percent; then Warren at 16 percent, Klobuchar at seven percent, and Sanders at six percent.

Monmouth University asked likely caucus goers to choose among the four candidates currently over 15 percent. Biden led at 28 percent followed by Buttigieg at 25 percent, Sanders at 24 percent, and Warren at 16 percent.

Conclusion

The Iowa Caucus should have a photo finish. Klobuchar may be surging at just the right time to break into the top tier, but she, Warren, and Sanders will be held up in Washington, D.C. with the Senate impeachment trial – not good news for their campaigns with less than two weeks to go before the Iowa Caucus. Klobuchar with an “all-in Iowa” strategy will likely be impacted the most.

This, of course, gives Biden and Buttigieg an advantage as the Caucus draws near if come to the state. Currently, Buttigieg has six events scheduled for Wednesday through the end of the month. He had eight events on Monday and Tuesday. Biden currently only has two events scheduled for Wednesday through the rest of the month. However, campaigns do update schedules frequently.

The Real Clear Politics poll average of the last three polls in Iowa shows Biden with a 3.7 point lead.

1. Biden – 21 percent
2. Sanders – 17.3 percent
3. Warren – 16.7 percent
4. Buttigieg – 16.3 percent
5. Klobuchar – 8.3 percent