Former Vice President Joe Biden received boost right before Super Tuesday. On Friday, when I wrote my preview of South Carolina and Super Tuesday, it didn’t look very good.
I knew he would win the South Carolina Democratic Primary. I didn’t see him outperforming his polling as he did. He won the state convincingly and had broad support among black voters.
Then Tom Steyer dropped, which I didn’t think Biden would see much of a boost from his departure. But then Buttigieg suspended his campaign on Sunday night. I thought perhaps he would wait until after Super Tuesday. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar announced on Monday that she would leave the race.
Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have endorsed Biden. Couple that with Sanders’ inane defense of Fidel Castro, a campaign that appeared to be on life support after New Hampshire suddenly has new life.
Today, my inbox has been flooded with press releases announcing various endorsements.
The establishment coalescing around the 77-year-old candidate has hit overdrive. They do not want to see Sanders win the Democratic presidential nomination. I think the only purpose that U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren serves in staying in the race is to siphon votes away from Sanders.
Based on Real Clear Politics average of polls on Friday, Biden was en route to win South Carolina and North Carolina. However, on Super Tuesday, based on the 12 states where polling exists, Biden only looked like he could pick up delegates in five states as the required threshold to win delegates is 15 percent.
The most significant boost that Biden will see here is that he will qualify for delegates in more states.
I think Sanders will still have a decent night, but I believe Biden will likely win North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Bloomberg leads Biden in both Arkansas and Oklahoma, but not by much. I think it’s likely enough Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters will go over to Biden to put him over the top in that state. Biden trailed Sanders on Friday in Texas, but not by much; I think he’ll prevail in Texas as well.
I’ve seen no polling in Alabama or Tennessee, but based on Biden’s strength among black voters, who are a large part of the Democratic voting base in both states, I don’t see him losing there.
I think it’s likely that Biden will come in second in California and Virginia. I also believe it’s likely he will qualify to pick up delegates in Massachusetts (though not many), Minnesota (thanks to Klobuchar’s departure who was leading that state), and Maine.
Biden’s outlook looks much brighter than it even late last week.
