As 2020 is a Census year with it brings a shift among the congressional seats each state is apportioned. Esri projects that nine states will lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives while six states will gain a seat, and Texas’ representation, they expect, will increase by three seats in the House.
The Constitution states that every ten years, the federal government will conduct a Census. The Constitution gives every state at least one congressional seat. The remaining 385 are then allocated among the states based on their apportionment population, as determined by the Census. By federal law, the population counts in each state must be delivered to the President by December 31st.
The Esri projections reflect regional patterns of population change. They noted that since 1910, when the House capped its number of seats at 435, the West’s seats in Congress increased by 24.1 percent, while the South saw a 37.9 percent increase.
The Winning States
The state of Texas has gained seats in every reallocation since 1940; in 2010, they gained four seats in the U.S. House. They have grown from 18 to a projected 39 seats since.
Oregon, Esri predicts, will jump to six seats, the last time they added a seat was in 1980. Arizona, they predict, will have ten seats; they have increased every reapportionment since 1960 and will double their number of seats since 1980 from five to ten. Colorado will see they anticipate will increase their seats to eight, doubling their seats since 1960. Montana, they project, will gain their second seat back after losing it in 1990.
North Carolina, Esri predicts, will be allocated 14 seats after adding a seat in 2000. Florida, they expect, will jump to 28 seats. The Sunshine State has added a congressional seat every apportionment since 1930, increasing from 4 in 1920 to their current number of 27 seats in the U.S. House.
The Losing States
California, they predict, will lose a seat for the first time since 1910. Minnesota is expected to lose a seat for the first time since 1950. Illinois will also lose a seat in Congress, they have lost a seat every apportionment since 1980. They have dropped from 27 in 1910 to their current number of 18.
Esri expects Michigan to lose a seat. They have dropped from a high reached in 1960 of 19 seats and are expected only to have 13 seats after the next reapportionment. Ohio’s number of seats they anticipate will decline to 15. Ohio lost two seats in the 2010 reapportionment. West Virginia, they say, will lose a seat, the last time they lost a seat was in 1990.
They anticipate that Pennsylvania will drop to 17 seats, the Commonwealth has lost a seat in Congress during every reapportionment since 1940. New York, who has lost seats in every reapportionment since 1950, they predict will drop again to 26. Rhode Island is expected to lose a seat for the first time since 1930 when they fell from 3 to 2 seats.
Iowa Stays at Four Seats
Since 1970, Iowa has lost a congressional seat every other reapportionment. According to the Legislative Services Agency, only six other states have lost more seats than Iowa – Missouri, Massachusetts, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York – since 1940.
Iowa lost seven seats since 1920 from 11 to 4. Iowa dropped to its current number of seats in 2010.
HT: James Lynch for the story idea.
