Right after the second round of Democratic presidential campaigns I had a prediction about Kamala Harris’ standing in the race.
I think whatever bump Harris saw after the first debate is gone after the second. She had a horrible night and was clubbed by Biden on health care which will hurt among more moderate voters. Then Gabbard clobbered her on criminal justice reform. She was not sharp. I suspect that she’ll hang on until the California primary which is on Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020.
I stand by that prediction and it looks like the latest CNN poll backs me up. Harris saw a 12-point drop from the last CNN poll taken in June after the first round of debates. In June, Harris was at 17 percent and now she’s at 6 percent.
The current poll taken on August 15-18, 2019, and released the morning shows:
1. Joe Biden – 29 percent (+7 from June)2.Bernie Sanders – 15 percent (+1)
3. Elizabeth Warren – 14 percent (-1)
4. (Tie at 5 percent) Pete Buttigieg – (+1) and Kamala Harris (-12)
6. Beto O’Rourke – 3 percent (-)
7. (Tie at 2 percent) Cory Booker (-1), Julian Castro (+1), and Tulsi Gabbard (+1)
10. (Tie at 1 percent) Steve Bullock (+1), Amy Klobuchar (-1), Tim Ryan (+1), Tom Steyer (N/A), and Andrew Yang (-).
This shows that Biden recovered after the first round of debates. He dropped 10 points from 32 percent in May to 22 percent in June, but rose again. Harris was the biggest loser from the last debate.
The poll still shows that electability is the primary concern among a majority of Democratic voters who say a nominee who has “a strong chance of beating Trump” is more important (54 percent) than a nominee who shares the voter’s position on issues (39 percent).
Voters polled thought that Biden has the best chance of beating Trump (35 percent), Warren (15 percent), Sanders (14 percent), Harris (7 percent), and Buttigieg (5 percent).
This, obviously, is one poll, but after the last debate things to not look great for Harris.