Branstad With Big Lead

I’ve got to somehow find a way to get on the leaked poll email distribution list that Craig Robinson is on.  He posted on leaked poll results that shows former Governor Terry Branstad with a big lead.

Here is the leaked email from Governor Branstad’s campaign manager, Jeff Boeyink:

As you are aware, we have been in the field with a poll of primary voting Republicans to test the current four-way race in the gubernatorial primary.

Details:

Hill Research Consultants
Survey dates: 1/10 through 1/12
N=750 Iowa Republicans who are very likely to vote in the June 8 primary

Here are the top-line results:

Four Way Primary Test

Terry Branstad 63%
Strongly 42%

Bob Vander Plaats 18%
Strongly 10%

Christopher Rants 04%
Strongly 02%

Rod Roberts 02%
Strongly 00%

I will have additional top lines and cross tabs to share with you later in the week. However, as we are kicking off the official start of the campaign this week I wanted to share this encouraging news.

Combine these results with the unprecedented fund raising accomplished in 2009 and our campaign has certainly started off in the right direction and with great momentum.

I am looking forward to seeing many of you at the kick-off event tomorrow and later in the week as we hold events in your respective areas.

Please give me a call if you have any questions.

Robinson says that the pollsters are pretty reliable, and he also points out that the sample size is larger than normal for a statewide poll.  This is obviously good news for the Branstad campaign.  This is still just one poll; so I’m not ready to declare him to be the nominee.  However, this is just one more piece of good news for the campaign that has had a pretty good start to the new year.  He already has a good start on fundraising reporting $1.5 million raised.  He also released 300 person, 99-county chair organization which speaks well of his organization, and he’s kicking off his comeback tour.

I am not surprised by a lead in the polls, but I am surprised by the margin.  I just have a hard time buying it.  I’ll be more convinced when I see outside polling.  I wonder how he polled in Western Iowa?

Some thoughts if this poll is accurate, and that is a big IF.

• He is demonstrating an ability to even draw social conservatives and evangelicals.  You don’t get to 63% on just those who care about fiscal concerns or moderates.
• Branstad’s 16 years as Governor and name recognition cast a long shadow.
• Vander Plaats has not addressed concerns beyond same-sex marriage sufficiently.
• IFPC’s endorsement will give Vander Plaats a jump, but will it be enough?
• Any thoughts of Vander Plaats running as an independent should evaporate.
• I’m *sure* my “endorsement” of Roberts/Rants will overcome them trailing in this poll 🙂

The only poll that really counts for the nomination will be in June.