This poll doesn’t pass the smell test for me. This particular pollster has always seemed to be off compared to similar polling done. I want to focus on two of the polling questions.
First there’s the pollster – Research 2000 among who’s clients are Daily Kos as well as, the Swing State Project (see update below) which is a liberal group. They were also involved in health care reform polling which didn’t match up with other polling that had been done.
Secondly, with the Governor’s race, in the Republican primary question (Branstad – 44%, Vander Plaats – 29%, Roberts – 12%, Undecided – 15%) they have an incredibly small sample size of Republicans – 173. They are the only ones who can vote in a primary. Other thing to consider is how many independents involved with the Tea Party will register Republican in the primary. That could be good for Vander Plaats or Roberts.
Also this poll has always had head-to-head polling that was more favorable for Culver than other polls have indicated (the last one I saw had Branstad and Vander Plaats beating Culver with Roberts within the margin of error).
Their sample figures:
Men 285 (48%)
Women 315 (52%)
Democrats 199 (33%)
Republicans 173 (29%)
Independents/Other 228 (38%)
The breakdown doesn’t bother me so much. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans. I think the gender ratio should be more even, but it isn’t that significant (30 people). Having a majority of independents is fine as that is the reality in our state. What I wonder is where did they poll, what counties? That would certainly skew the Republican primary poll, as well as, the overall poll.
Well the only poll that really matters is the one this Tuesday, and then again in November.
Update: I received an email from one of the editors, James Lambert, at the Swing State Project. He said they never commissioned a poll from Research 2000 or anyone, but they do report on polls commissioned by Daily Kos and other media outlets.
I regret my error.
