On Monday Rasmussen released the latest poll of the Iowa Governor’s race, and it looks very good for former Governor Terry Branstad. Especially in light of the announcement that Bob Vander Plaats will not be launching an independent campaign after losing to Branstad in the June primary. Branstad leads incumbent Governor Chet Culver 52% to 36% with 12 weeks until election day.
Some nuggets from the poll that I find interesting are:
- Only 4% are undecided, that will make it difficult for Governor Culver to gain ground if the polling is accurate and I find that Rasmussen polling usually is.
- 47% of those surveyed found that Governor Culver’s views are extreme, only 39% put them in the mainstream. Perhaps going back on his word to protect marriage and kissing up to the GLBT crowd will backfire. Also I doubt many consider his economic policies to be mainstream, let alone reflective of common sense.
- Contrasting Culver, 57% of those surveyed find that Branstad’s positions to be mainstream – lower taxes, spending cuts, pro-life, anti-gay marriage, etc. Only 31% find him extreme. Those that do would make up the minority of the hard-left in this state.
- Culver has a 61% disapproval rating, it is hard to see how a sitting Governor wins reelection with numbers like that.
- Branstad is backed by 87% of Republicans, while Culver is supported by 78% of Democrats. Branstad leads by more than two-to-one among voters not affiliated with either major political party. As with any statewide race in Iowa, whomever wins the independents, wins the election as they make up the largest voting block in the state.
- Branstad had a bump to 57% after the primary, but has consistently polled at 52 – 53%.
At this point I think that Governor Culver will need a complete disastrous meltdown by the Branstad campaign or a miracle in order spend four more years at Terrace Hill.
Update: I missed this yesterday as I’m behind on my reading (on vacation, so it hasn’t been a priority), but also wanted to point out that Branstad leads Culver 53% to 35% in The Iowa Republican poll. 8% undecided in that poll. It leads me to believe that Culver’s campaign will be DOA come election day.