I’ve been focused on other things this week, but now that we’ve reached the weekend I thought I’d share some thoughts on the latest Iowa Caucus poll by We Ask America. 885 likely Republican caucus voters were asked if the Iowa Caucus were held today who would you vote for? The results:
- Mike Huckabee – 20.23%
- Sarah Palin – 14.12%
- Newt Gingrich – 13.90%
- Mitt Romney – 13.33%
- Donald Trump – 9.04%
- Ron Paul – 4.52%
- Tim Pawlenty – 3.50%
- Haley Barbour – 2.60%
- Mitch Daniels – 1.81%
6.10% listed “other” and 10.85% said they were undecided. The margin of error is +/-3.29% Some observations…
- I have no reason to doubt the outcome of the poll based on the sample size, they could be accused of oversampling though. I would also like to know the percentages of participants by gender, age, and even geographical area in Iowa.
- I’m not surprised that Governor Huckabee is leading, and it does show that he still has a strong base. Looking at the percentage breakdown by gender and age, Huckabee leads women with 23.09% which gave him his largest margin of 9 points with Mitt Romney coming in with 2nd among women with 14.13% Huckabee leads men by a smaller margin of of less than 2 points at 17.13% with Sarah Palin coming in 2nd with 15.72%. I don’t know the exact breakdown of female Republicans to male Republicans, but I believe males outnumber females among registered Republicans. I’ll try to verify that, but hard to do on the weekend. Huckabee also leads among 25-34 year-olds (by a larger margin), 55-65 year-olds (by only 2 points), and 65+ with 23.67%.
- Even though some don’t want to get serious about Sarah Palin she comes in 2nd with 14 points in a crowded field. She leads 35-44 year-olds with 20.83% and 45-54 year-olds with 21.74%. She trails Huckabee by 2 points among 55-64 year-olds. The 35-64 age range among is your base among Republican caucus goers. In 2008, exit polling showed only 12% of caucus goers were under the age of 30 whereas 50% were in the 30-59 age range. Considering she hasn’t been in Iowa much this also shows that she does have a base to draw from. If she gets in the race there is potential to build.
- I find it odd that Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum were not included in this poll, but Donald Trump was. Some of their supporters could make up the “other” category, but out of sight (or ear), out of mind for some. I’m sure that skewed this poll, but in whose favor is anyone’s guess.
- Regardless of how many online polls Ron Paul wins he just doesn’t poll well in scientific polls, even among 18-24 year-olds, he only pulled just north of 5%.
- Even with a crowed social conservative line-up, Mitt Romney is just fourth. This time in 2007 he was leading the pack. This obviously doesn’t bode well for him.
- Haley Barbour pulls in 20% of 18-24 year-old vote… I’m not sure why that is. Strange.
- With almost 11% undecided with a crowded field is a pretty good size percentage. Also if Huckabee or Palin (or both) decide not to run there will be a vacuum – who will fill it?
- I’m surprised that Pawlenty didn’t poll better the visits he has made to Iowa and the organization he has behind him.
- This poll affirms my believe that if Mitch Daniels gets in his candidacy will go nowhere in Iowa.
- Gingrich finds himself in a solid position as well… his status will largely depend, I believe, how well received he is among evangelicals who may be leery of his personal history.
Anyway, this poll is early and incomplete so it would be best to take it with a grain of salt. It would be extremely interesting to know who are likely voters 2nd choice.