Secretary of Agriculture and former Iowa Governor, Tom Vilsack, is back in Iowa this week. With him comes speculation about his wife’s potential Congressional bid. First the talk was that she’d run in the new 2nd Congressional district when it was opened up. However with Congressman Dave Loebsack committed to move south in order to run to retain his seat. Most of his district has stayed in tact and it is doubtful that Mrs. Vilsack could make a convincing case as to why primary voters should choose her when Iowa Democrats have been satisfied with Loebsack.
Now the political chattering class is talking about a Vilsack-King match-up in the new Iowa 4th Congressional District. Secretary Vilsack said when asked about this potential match-up said that it would be a “holy war.”
Try a bloodbath. For several reasons…
1. With Congressman Tom Latham (R-IA) moving south to challenge Congressman Leonard Boswell (D-IA) in the newly drawn Iowa 3rd Congressional District. Congressman Steve King will likely not face a primary opponent so he’ll be able to give his full attention and resources on the general election.
2. The 4th District is still Republican red meat land… even some Democrats believe she doesn’t stand a chance. Yes she probably stands the best chance of any running up against Congressman King, but he is very popular with his base and they outnumber registered Democrats in the 4th.
3. Who will have the most energized base? With President Barack Obama at the top of the ballot that could benefit some Democrats. In this district, however, it is just as possible that more people will come out against Obama.
4. Money… I just don’t see major Democrat donors giving money hand over fist on a long shot.
Maybe she’d be better off waiting for Boswell to retire or to be retired in 2012 by Latham and then try in 2014. Because I don’t see how an electoral beating will help her political future.