imageThe Des Moines Register released their Iowa Poll for the current Republican field.  Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads, barely, with 23%.  Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann who has seen a huge bump after the New Hampshire debate is right behind him with 22%.  Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain is third with 10%.  Former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are tied for fourth with 7%,  Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is 6th with 6%.  Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is in 7th place at 4%, and former Utah Governor and Ambassador Jon Huntsman is running last at 2%.  This leaves about 19% who are undecided (unless they indicated another candidate).  69% said they could still change their mind.

Some thoughts. 

  • I’m glad that this poll only included declared candidates as it gives us a good picture of how candidates will fare. 
  • It’s still early.  Things could still change.
  • The Iowa Straw Poll will make or break Pawlenty if he doesn’t fare well, and I think he has to win it with all of the resources he’s pouring into it.  The has the best staff, the largest staff, he’s running TV ads, he has a straw poll website and he still only pulls 6%.  That has to be discouraging.
  • Michele Bachmann is for real, and now that she has declared people are willing to support her.
  • I believe Herman Cain will decline, and I don’t believe will have the ground game to do well in the straw poll.  He has lost a lot of key support within the tea party movement in Iowa.
  • Ron Paul has only 7%, again this is another indicator that his online grassroots support doesn’t equal votes.
  • I’m surprised that Newt Gingrich still has 7%, but I don’t expect he will poll any higher.  He will have a hard time competing in Iowa since he lacks the organization.
  • Rick Santorum’s also facing a do or die situation.  I predict that if he doesn’t do well in the straw poll he will exit the race.
  • Establishment, moderate Republicans seem to be coalescing around Mitt Romney, if there is attrition in the current field he could very well lose his lead.

If former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin or Texas Governor Rick Perry decide to get into the race this current poll gets turned on head.

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