imageThe Iowa Republican conducted the latest Iowa Caucus poll which has Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by 4 points within the margin of error of 4.4 points.  She has 25 points and Romney has 21.

Craig Robinson has said she has “overtaken him,” but the last poll that was done she was only 1 point down with the Register’s Iowa Poll having a 4.9% margin of error and 100 less people in their sample size.  They had 400, Robinson had 500 in his poll sample.  It seems to me that the TIR poll is likely more accurate of a picture of the Republican field that the Register’s poll was.

What stands out more to me is that former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has moved up to third place, practically tied with Herman Cain… he had 8.8% and Cain had 8.5%.  So he crept up a little, but he is running ads in the state now.  I said with the Register’s poll that things are fluid, and I still believe that to be true.  The field isn’t settled, but Bachmann has to be happy with her current position.  I still don’t see however how she will be able to win the Ames Straw Poll with her current ground game.  I still believe she’ll do well, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she does win it.  If she does she is in an incredibly strong position going into the fall.

The entire poll results:

  1. Michele Bachmann – 25%
  2. Mitt Romney – 21%
  3. Tim Pawlenty – 9% (8.8%)
  4. Herman Cain – 9% (8.5%)
  5. Ron Paul – 6%
  6. Newt Gingrich – 4%
  7. Rick Santorum – 2%
  8. Jon Huntsman – 1%

Photo by Dave Davidson (Looking at the picture, I don’t think we have to guess real hard who Ryan Rhodes is supporting Smile)

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