Rasmussen released today its latest Iowa Caucus poll and it shows that Iowa is following national polling with Perry as the frontrunner by 11 points ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Perry leads former Iowa frontrunner, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, by 11 points with 29%. Bachmann has 18%, Romney has 17%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul is fourth with 14%. Everyone else is under 5% – former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has 4%, Herman Cain has 4%, former Utah Governor and Ambassador Jon Huntsman has 3% and former Speaker Newt Gingrich has 2%.
A couple of things jump out at me with this poll. One is the sample size – 862 likely Republican Iowa Caucus goers participated. That’s a nice size polling sample. Also something to note is that only 27% are sure how they will vote. So everyone’s support is likely pretty soft as of yet. Also 45% of those who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters back Perry so perhaps some of the common complaints I’ve heard about Perry from those involved in the Tea Party is falling on deaf ears?
Santorum saw a slight bump from the last Rasmussen Iowa Caucus poll, the last one taken before the straw poll had him with less than 1%. Newt Gingrich went down three points. Huntsman gained a point, Cain stayed the same. Paul lost two points which is odd considering he placed second at the Ames Straw Poll, I believe much of that has to do with people learning more about his foreign policy.
Real Clear Politics averaged the last three polls done in Iowa, and you see that Perry has a 6.4% lead:
As of right now, Perry is the guy to beat. As Rasmussen points out with all of the debates and forums in September this momentum is likely to slow as the other candidates start focusing on him as the frontrunner. Ron Paul is already doing that, but it would seem that backfired.
Photo by Dave Davidson Prezography.com
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