The latest Public Policy Polling Iowa Caucus poll is out.  it shows a three-way statistical tie.  This confirms what The Des Moines Register found in their latest poll in the last two days of their polling a definite Santorum surge.  Now we have a statistical dead heat in Iowa with Ron Paul at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%.  Newt Gingrich is 4th at 14%, Rick Perry is 5th at 10%, Michele Bachmann is 6th at 8%, Jon Huntsman is in 7th at 4%, and Buddy Roemer (yes some people still include him in the polls) has 2%.

The PPP poll was last taken on 12/26-27, since that time Paul has dropped 4%, Romney has dropped 1%, Santorum has gone up 8%, Gingrich has increased a point, Bachmann has dropped 3 points, Perry has stayed the same as have Huntsman and Roemer.

As Pollster J. Ann Seltzer said in her analysis of the Iowa Poll, “Momentum’s name is Santorum.”  He is only one of two candidates who have seen a jump, and the only one who has gained more than a point.  PPP also points out that he has the highest favorability rating at 60%.  He leads with both Tea Partiers and Evangelicals.

This is an interesting poll as it includes independents and Democrats who plan to register to vote in the Republican caucus (they estimate 24% of the electorate).  They said that Paul polls 3rd among actual Republicans tied with Gingrich at 17%.  His ability to win the Iowa Caucus will be based on whether the youth vote and non-Republicans actually come out and caucus for him.

The bottom has fallen out for Michele Bachmann, as she has seen a steady decline and last week has probably had the worst week any candidate could have.  She should say adieu after Tuesday.

This will go down to the wire, and as I said before I doubt the winner will break 25%.

6 comments
  1. Oh, come on. The DMR poll was broken out for the last two days saying Santorum was surging…. since EACH day of the PPP poll had more calls than the entire DMR poll, it seems fair to do what FiveThirtyEight did and break out the two days of polling — whereby you find Santorum’s surge stalled, Romney dropping, and Ron Paul going back up again….

    @fivethirtyeight Sat: Romney 21, Paul 19, Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10. Sun: Paul 21, Romney/Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10

  2. But really and truly, you don’t CARE that Santorum voted for No Child Left Behind, voted to raise the debt ceiling multiple times and was ‘not a lobbyist’? Amongst other things?  I know it is rare that a social conservative is not also fiscally conservative, but Santorum is that man.

    1. Sailing, a fiscal conservative *would* vote to raise the debt ceiling because that’s money ready spent. (aside: a fiscal conservative would know that). What a fiscal conservative would not do is waste trillions in badly managed wars and reduce government income instead of paying off the national debt during a boom economy, a period when a fiscally-responsible person would instead build reserves. A fiscally-responsible person would also have looked at the financial bubble and poorly regulated financial businesses and said ‘Holy smokes, this is going to bring down the economy if we don’t better manage the extreme risk these idiots have created from excessive leverage!’

      That said, it’s true that Santorum was’t quite the fiscal conservative in Congress that he now wants to be (at least while out of government

  3. I hope to God people get out and vote for Ron Paul.  Not because everything he says is sacrosanct, but because he is the only honest one up there. And he is the only one who is opposed to the conventional Establishment politics.

    Santorum is one the most corrupt Senators out there.

    Gingrich  is a sham and everyone knows it.

    Romney is at least polite.

  4. Well, according to the PPP Poll which was released after the Des
    Moines Register poll, Paul has regained the lead. Furthermore, if we
    apply the same DMR half-poll momentum analysis, Paul is gaining while
    Mitt and Santorum are falling and stalled respectively.  Paul
    20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8, Huntsman
    4, Roemer 2. If you break down the polling days, it looks like
    Santorum’s surge has stopped (18% on both days of the poll) whereas
    Paul’s has increased from 19 to 21% while Romney’s has fallen from 21%
    to 18%.

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