Congressman David Young (R-Iowa) leads his Democratic challenger Jim Mowrer 50 percent to 35 percent in a new Simpson College/RABA poll released today.
Young has a 21 point among men. He also has an 8 point lead among women in the district. Both candidates enjoy similar majority support from their parties – 87% for Young and 82% for Mowrer. Young, however, holds a significant lead among independent/3rd party voters 53 percent to 24 percent. Almost a quarter of independents – 24 percent remain undecided. Young enjoys a 40 point lead among evangelicals. The only category (outside each candidate’s party) that Mowrer leads is among non-evangelicals where he only holds a six point lead.
Young is out preforming poll numbers that Donald Trump has received in the state. Mowrer, however, is under performing poll numbers that Hillary Clinton, his party’s nominee, has received in all categories.
“The numbers show Young’s success in crafting a more moderate image that appeals to independents,” Kedron Bardwell, chair of the Simpson College political science department, said. “But Jim Mowrer just started advertising on TV, so he should get a boost in name recognition. We’ll see if he can capitalize on it, rally his party, and close the gap with swing voters.”
“This remains a tight, competitive district,” RABA partner Tim Albrecht, a Republican, stated. “Young enjoys a competitive lead now, but expect both parties to open the advertising artillery as early voting begins in just under two weeks. With a full quarter of independents in the district undecided, they are a jump ball for either candidate to win over.”
The Simpson/RABA poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 among a random sample of 303 voters on landline and cellular phones, with supplemental cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.