The Iowa Independent highlighted a poll that showed a majority of Iowans favor public insurance option. It says that 62% of Iowans favor health care reform with a public insurance option over the current Senate bill that doesn’t have it. This includes 67% of independents.
This poll was commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for Action and Credo Action and was done by Research 2000. It polled 600 likely general election voters in 2010. Those who responded included 33% Democrat, 28% Republican and 38% independent.
First thought, well I can’t write what I thought and maintain a somewhat family friendly blog. Second thought, look who commissioned this. Thirdly this is way out in left field (literally) compared to all the other polls I’ve seen nationally and polling that has been done in Iowa that would contradict this.
Nationally we have:
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CNN which shows 48% want to start over and 25% wants Congress to stop working altogether. 51% did say they would favor a public option.
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Rasmussen 56% of Americans oppose Obama Health Care Plan and that 61% say Congress should start all over again on health care. Back in January 61% said that Congress should just drop it altogether and focus on things that will help improve the economy.
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Gallup: 55% say to suspend work on bill and consider alternatives (56% of Independents).
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You can actually compare a bunch of national polls here.
Research 2000 has conducted similar polls with the same organizations commissioning with similar results, but I don’t seen anyone paying serious attention. Why? Because it isn’t believable. For instance, 61% in Virginia support the public option where Bob McDonnell won the Gubernatorial race in a landslide. Exit polling showed that healthcare was the second most important issue in that race second to the economy/jobs.
In Iowa
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The Iowa Poll showed Iowa to still be a center-right state which would be counterintuitive to people being for the public option.
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A more recent Iowa Poll showed that 79% of Iowans think the Federal Government spends too much and 54% think the state spends too much. Does that make sense with the Research 2000 poll? No.
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Unfortunately recent polling hasn’t been done in Iowa outside of the Research 2000 poll on health care. A Winston Group Poll back in September showed only 36% supported health care plan. The Iowa Poll back in September shows that only 43% favored it.
Research 2000 also did the recent KCCI poll that seems off compared to other polling in the Gubernatorial race as well. They said Governor Culver’s approval rating was 44%. A recent Iowa poll found it to be 36%. An eight point difference is pretty significant. The Iowa Poll also polled hypothetical head to head matchups which I highlighted last week.
Former Governor Terry Branstad leads Governor Chet Culver by 20 points (53% to 33%) while Culver is within the margin of error with the other candidates – Bob Vander Plaats (trailing 43% to 40%), Chris Rants (leading 41% to 37%), and Rod Roberts (leading 41% to 36% – just outside margin of error +/- 4.3%).
The KCCI/Research 2000 poll shows in hypothetical match-ups:
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Former Governor Terry Branstad leads Governor Chet Culver 54% to 38%
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However, Culver leads Bob Vander Plaats in a head to head 41% to 38%
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Culver leads Chris Rants (whose now out) 44% to 33%
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Culver leads Rod Roberts 48% to 26%
A considerable difference and this doesn’t jive with the latest Rasmussen poll with the Vander Plaats-Culver match-up which shows Vander Plaats leading Culver 46% to 40%. It is also considerably different than the TIR/Concordia Group poll that was commissioned. It shows Branstad polling ahead of Culver 57% to 28% and Vander Plaats leading Culver 43% to 39%.
So what does this tell us? That the Research 2000 polls are pure poppycock and shouldn’t be trusted.