I just want to draw your attention to the latest poll out there, out of 597 Iowa Republicans polled.
- Ron Paul – 23%
- Mitt Romney – 20%
- Newt Gingrich – 14%
- (Tie) Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry – 10%
- Jon Huntsman – 4%
- Gary Johnson – 2%
Something interesting to note:
Paul’s ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he’s run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.
While I disagree on the candidates those polled have said run the best campaign in Iowa, I do agree with the larger point – being here matters.
Also things are tightening up a little more only 7% are undecided, but still 37% of those polled could end up supporting somebody else. That’s still a significant number. Paul could be peaking at the right time, but there is likely a higher ceiling for Romney here in Iowa, but not much. He’s never polled higher than 25%. I predict the winner of the Iowa Caucus will be in the low to mid 20s.
