That should be the real headline. The Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll has Newt Gingrich currently leading at 25%, Ron Paul is 2nd with 18%. Mitt Romney drops to 3rd with 16%. Michele Bachmann and the now former candidate Herman Cain are at 8% (down from 23% last month when The Des Moines Register polled last). Rick Santorum and Rick Perry are at 6% (increase for Santorum, decline for Perry) and Jon Huntsman is at 2%.
The real story though is that 60% can still change their mind and 11% are still undecided. This race is still incredibly fluid. Don’t be surprised if Gingrich declines once he starts to take a beating on his immigration stance, among other things, now that he is the frontrunner.
Not to mention he has zero organization. He would be in a better position if we had a primary rather than a caucus. This poll shows he benefits the most from Cain’s departure, but again if he can’t turn them out. I anticipate that he will under perform his polling on January 3rd.
Ron Paul is in good shape and has the best organization, I predicted that he would be in the top 3 and he is in good shape to do that and possibly even win if Gingrich implodes.
Romney’s hair got messed up. He dropped 6% from the last Iowa Poll. If he keeps this up he won’t be in the top 3 which would make me incredibly happy.
Bachmann and Santorum both need to camp out in Iowa and have excellent debates this month. Performing well in Iowa is a must for both. Perry is done. Put a fork in him, he’s just wasting money and taking voters away from other viable candidates. Huntsman who? I’m glad he is excluded from this Saturday’s debate.