I’ll say right off the bat that I don’t take national polling very seriously. A couple of polls were released yesterday that bucked the trend of Donald Trump dominating national polling. If it were just one I would have ignored it, but two suggests a pattern perhaps. I think the most interesting takeaway from both of these polls is the polling done with a hypothetical one on one with Donald Trump.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll shows a tighter race with Trump only leading by 3 points.
- Donald Trump – 30%
- Ted Cruz – 27%
- John Kasich – 22%
- Marco Rubio – 20%
This particular poll hasn’t always been the most favorable for Trump as last month Cruz led by two points.
The thing that I find most interesting is they polled head to head if the GOP race became a two-man race. They note: “Cruz and Kasich best Trump by an identical 17 points, 57 percent to 40 percent, while Rubio beats Trump by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent.”
The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Trump in the lead with 9 points, which I think is probably more accurate.
- Trump – 34%
- Cruz – 25%
- Rubio – 18%
- Kasich – 13%
They also note that Cruz and Rubio beats Donald Trump in a two-person race. Cruz bests Trump 54% to 41%, and Rubio would lead Trump 51% to 45%.
A brokered convention is a big gamble. Cruz has shown that he can take on Donald Trump. This race needs to boil down to Cruz and Trump. I’d prefer to see before March 15th than after, but it absolutely needs to happen should Kasich and Rubio not win their home states.