I wanted to revisit my earlier article on the electoral map. I may have to revisit what I originally though was Trump’s worst case scenario as seen below.
I wrote the map above represents Clinton would have 357 electors to Trump’s 181. The blue represents Clinton and the red represents Trump.
Here is the electoral map as it stands today according to Real Clear Politics.
The gray represents toss-up states. Lavender means likely Clinton. Pink means leans Trump. Dark blue means likely Clinton and dark red means likely Trump. The numbers represent the amount of electors. Certain states award by congressional district instead of winner-take-all with states. Right now Hillary Clinton, with the toss-up states included and based on polling, has a 102 elector lead over Donald Trump – 256 to 154. Which is worse than last month. Clinton sees an increase of 47 and Trump loses 10. States that were considered toss-ups last month – Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are no longer considered toss-ups, but “leans Clinton.”
Remember it only takes 270 to win and right now if the election were held today Clinton is only 16 electors away from hitting that, but hold on, it gets worse.
If you take away the toss up states and award electors based on current polling today. The worse case scenario I wrote about last month is not as bad as the current reality.
This represents a 362 to 176 electoral landslide for Clinton. Let’s compare this with the maps from the last four presidential elections.
This is the 2000 electoral map between then Texas Governor George W. Bush (red) and Vice President Al Gore (blue) which was won by Bush 271 to 267.
Now we have President George W. Bush’s (red) reelection victory over U.S. Senator John Kerry (blue) in 2004 – 286 to 252.
In 2008 then U.S. Senator Barack Obama (blue) defeated U.S. Senator John McCain (red) 365 to 173.
In 2012 President Obama won reelection over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 332 to 206.
The state that jumps out at me the most is Georgia. Georgia has been held by Republicans the last four contests. Clinton has led Trump in the last two polls. The latest poll from JMC Analytics gives Clinton a seven point lead. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution‘s poll put Clinton up by 4 points.
Georgia shouldn’t be a swing state, but this cycle it is and Clinton has the advantage. North Carolina was won by Republicans in three of the last four elections. Clinton leads three of the last four polls taken there.
Virginia leaning toward Clinton at this point does not surprise me. Based on the growth in Northern Virginia because of the suburban growth outside of Washington, DC I think that state is going to be harder and harder for Republicans to win. It certainly trends Democrat as we have seen in the past two elections.
As far as New Hampshire goes, I never really thought Trump had much of a chance in that state. George W. Bush was the last Republican to win that state 16 years ago. So the fact it is no longer considered a toss-up doesn’t surprise me.
Florida right now leans Clinton’s way as she leads in three of the last four polls.
There is some good news for Trump. He has expanded his lead in Utah, but still polls under 40%. Trump leads Clinton by 12 points – 37% to 25%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is polling double digits there however, and looks to be surging. He went from 10% in June to 16%. The entrance of Evan McMullin, who is from Utah, into the race could cause some problems for Trump as well. So it is still entirely possible that Trump could lose Utah which would be remarkable.
The electoral map still isn’t Donald Trump’s friend and I don’t see any improvement happening any time soon.
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